摘要：Research purposes:According to the functional orientation of the Beijing-Shenyang High-speed Railway in the railway network and the network plan for passenger outgoing and incoming of the Shanhai Passage,this paper systematically studies the timing of building the Beijing-Shenyang High-speed Railway through the comprehensive analysis and prediction of total passenger transportation volume of outgoing and incoming of the Shanhai Pass,the reasonable functions of various railways,the annual adaptability and transportation efficiency of existing railways and the demands of regional economic and social development.Construction of high-speed railway takes long time with the larger amount of investment,and it has the big influence on the local economic and social developments,so the decisionmaking process is very complicated.The adaptability analysis of the corridor and passenger traffic volume related to the railway network is the most basic data for the decision-making on the timing of building the railway,but it is not the only determining factor.In addition,the regional economic development,improvement of comprehensive efficiency of railway network and environment change caused by the construction also should be fully taken into account.The research methods and ideas on the timing of building the railway presented in this paper can be as the reference to the similar works.Research conclusions:(1) From the views of meeting the traffic demands of outgoing and incoming of the Shanhai Pass and optimizing the railway network structure,the railway construction should be complete by 2020 in order to relax the traffic pressure and improve the service quality of the passenger outgoing and incoming of the Shanhai Pass.(2) From the views of promoting the coordinated development of the regional economy and improving the construction environment,the railway construction can change the poor transport situations of Chengde,Chaoyang and Fuxin areas along the railway,develop and enrich the travel resources and maintain the closely economic exchange of Beijing and Shenyang with the surrounding areas,and it is crucial to promotion of the coordinated development of the regional economy.(3) From the view of the project's economic benefits,the two rapid passenger corridors with large traffic capacity will be formed after building the railway and they can enhance the railway network＇s flexibility because they have enough traffic capacity in the early days after railway building.The trains of the different grades can run to meet the demands of the different passengers to reflect the public welfare and basic features of the railway.(4) The research on the method for the timing of building the railway presented in this paper is available for planing and construction of the transportation infrastructure.%研究目的:根据京沈客运专线在路网中的功能定位以及进出关路网构成的规划,通过对在进出关客运总量预测分析及各线合理分工及研究年度既有路网适应性、运输效率、区域经济社会发展需求等因素综合分析,系统研究京沈客运专线建设时机.铁路客运专线项目投资大、建设周期长,对于经济社会发展影响较大,其决策过程也比较复杂,其中对通道及相关路网客运量和既有路网能力适应性分析,是项目建设时机决策的最基础性支撑数据,但不是唯一的决定因素,此外,还应充分考虑区域经济发展、路网综合效率的提升、建设环境变化等多重因素.本文提出的关于铁路建设项目建设时机研究的一般方法和研究思路可为有关专业同行提供参考与借鉴.研究结论:(1)从进出关运输需求和优化路网结构角度,为根本上缓解运输压力、改善铁路进出关客运服务水平,增强市场竞争能力等,本项目应在2020年前建成；(2)从促进区域经济协调发展和改善建设环境的角度,本项目建成可根本上改变沿线承德、朝阳、阜新等城市交通落后的局面,开发丰富的旅游资源,密切北京、沈阳与周边城市群之间的经济交流,促进区域经济的协调发展具有重要意义；(3)从项目自身投资效益角度分析,根据运量预测,本项目建成后,进出关形成两条大能力、快速客运通道,在建成初期,总体上运输能力较为富裕,但可极大增强路网的机动性和灵活性,同时考虑东北地区对于铁路出行方式依赖程度较高,可以开行不同等级的客车,满足不同层次旅客的需求,体现铁路客运公益性、基础性特征.(4)本文关于项目建设时机研究的一般方法可应用于交通运输基础设施规划建设领域.
