摘要：
本文基于空间经济理论中港口与城市区位的建模思想,建立交通枢纽与城市区位的理论模型,探讨了交通枢纽影响枢纽城市形成的内在机理.研究表明,交通枢纽是否会形成枢纽城市取决于交通支线的数量、 新城市区位距离原有中心城市的远近及运输的便利化程度.数值模拟显示,交通枢纽点的交通支线越多,越容易形成枢纽城市,且在距离中心城市一定的距离范围内,存在一个临界点,在该点上交通支线数对市场潜力的影响较小,当城市区位超过该临界点,交通支线越少,市场潜力越大,越有可能形成新的次级城市;运输成本越大,交通支线对市场潜力的影响程度越大,且在更高的运输成本下,越容易形成稳定的枢纽城市.实证检验表明,市场潜力、 公路与铁路交通支线对城市聚集力均具有显著的正向影响,且公路等级越高,影响越大.因此,增强丝绸之路经济带沿线城市的市场潜力,加快沿线公路与铁路设施建设,提升公路等级,是促进丝绸之路经济带建设顺利推进,实现我国与沿线国家互联互通的重要基础.%Based on the modeling theory of port and urban location in spatial economics, this paper establishes the theoreti-cal model of traffic hub and urban location, and discusses the internal mechanism that how the traffic hub influences the formation of hub city.The study shows that whether the traffic hub can form the hub city depends on the number of traffic branch lines, the dis-tances of the new urban location from the original central city and the transport facilitation.The numerical simulation shows that the more traffic branch lines of traffic hubs, the more likely to form hub cities, and there is a critical point on which the traffic branch lines have less impact on the potential market.When the location of urban exceeds the critical point, the less the traffic branch lines, the greater the market potential, the more likely to form a new secondary city; and the higher the transportation cost, the greater the impact of the traffic branch lines on the market potential.At a higher transportation cost, it is more likely to form a sta-ble urban hub city.The empirical test shows that the market potential, highway and railway traffic branch lines have a significant positive impact on the agglomeration force of the city, and the higher the highway grade, the greater the impact.Therefore, re-search suggests that strengthening the market potential of the city along the Silk Road economic belt, speeding up the highway and railway facilities, and enhancing the highway grade are important foundations for promoting the construction of Silk Road economic belt smoothly and realizing the connectivity between China and the countries along the belt.
