摘要：
Based on TM images in the years of 1990, 2000 and 2008, the land use dynamic changes from 1990 to 2008 in Huanglong Mountainous forest areas were analyzed by using RS and GIS methods. The Markov process was applied to analyze and predict the variation tendency of the land use. The results showed that before 2000, land use changed rapidly and the land-use dynamic degree was 1. 60% with a scattered transfer. The land use dynamics reduced to 0. 94% and the transfer direction tended to concentrated from 2000. During 18 years, forest area increased the most, up to 427. 06 km2, but open forest land and unused land significantly reduced. Areas of cultivated land increased, and then decreased. The major change way was that other land use types changed into forest; Markov prediction reveals that the farmland, open forest land, unused land will be further reduced, forest and other wooded area will continue to increase, and the range would diminish. Urban and rural land and water, will also fluctuate insignificantly in the nest 16 years from 2008.%以黄龙山林区为研究对象,结合1990年、2000年、2008年3期TM图像,运用RS和GIS技术分析黄龙林区1990-2008年间土地利用动态的空间变化过程,并利用马尔柯夫模型对土地动态变化及演变趋势进行预测分析.结果表明:2000年以前,土地利用变化快,土地利用动态度为1.60％,并且转移较分散,而从2000年以后,土地利用动态度降为0.94％,转移方向趋于集中；1990-2008年期间,有林地面积增加最多,达427.06 km2,疏林地和未利用地面积大幅减少,耕地面积先增后减,主要土地利用转变方式为其他土地利用类型转向有林地；预测结果表明:2008年以后的16a内(2008-2024年),研究区内耕地、疏林地、未利用地等将进一步减少且增减幅度不断降低；有林地和其他林地面积将继续增加,城乡用地和水域等也有增减但幅度不大.
