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应用气象学报

应用气象学报

北大核心

CSCD

CSTPCD

Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
本刊是大气科学技术与应用研究相结合的综合性学术期刊，主要反映新理论和新技术在大气科学中的应用，以及气象理论与实践相结合，应用于有关领域的科研成果。
  • 发文量：2138
  • 被引量：3413
  • H指数：3
  • 开始收录时间：1989(1)
  • CNKI综合因子：3.015
  • 维普期刊影响因子： 3.192
  • 万方期刊影响因子：2.43
  • 创刊时间：1986
  • 国内刊号/CN：11-2690/P
    国际刊号/ISSN：1001-7313
  • 发行周期：双月刊
    邮发代号：
  • 主管单位：中国气象局
    主办单位：中国气象科学研究院 国家气象中心 国家卫星气象中心 国家气候中心　国家气象信息中心　中国气象局气象探测中心
应用气象学报-联系信息
  • 主编：张人禾
  • 电话：010-68407086 68408638 68409592
  • 邮箱：yyqxxb@cma.gov.cn;yyqxxb@163.com
  • 地址：北京中关村南大街46号
  • 邮编：100081
应用气象学报-获奖情况
  • • 1992年北京市新闻出版局、北京市科技期刊编辑学会“编辑质量奖、编辑规范奖、办刊条件奖”
  • • 1995年获中国气象科学研究院科技进步二等奖
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应用气象学报 >2021年第002期

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  • 摘要：Using the maximal correlation minimum redundancy algorithm and random forest regression algo-rithm,a rainstorm interpretation forecasting method with numerical prediction products is proposed based on the ensemble prediction system of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF). The precipitation forecast of 5 1 members in ECMWF ensemble prediction system are interpolated to weath-er stations,and then,the maximum related minimum redundancy algorithm is used to filter ensemble members.Finally,several member interpolations that have the highest correlation with the predictand and the least redundancy with each other are selected as input factors of the random forest regression algo-rithm.Furthemore,in order to make modeling samples of the forecast model more pertinence,the model-ing samples are classified using the mean rainfall value of ECMWF ensemble prediction products of 5 1 members.That is,when the mean precipitation using ECMWF ensemble prediction products at a certain station is relatively large and there is a possibility of precipitation above the storm level,only historical samples containing a large amount of precipitation are selected as modeling samples of the forecasting mod-el.Therefore,the forecasting model reduces the influence of the sunny and wet weather samples on the noise of the forecasting model,so that forecasting model focuses on the training of large precipitation sam-ples.When the mean value of the predicted ECMWF ensemble precipitation at a certain weather station is small,all samples of the weather station(including samples of sunny days and heavy precipitation)are modeled so that the training of the forecasting model can reconcile the heavy rain samples and thus as far as possible to avoid the rainstorm of weather station omissions reported.This method is applied to 89 stations in Guangxi,and a 4-year cross-independent sample test forecast for 2012-2015 is carried out.The busi-ness test forecast is carried out in 2016.In the 4-year cross-independent sample test results,rainstorm TS and ETS scores of this method are all improved by 0.04-0.09 and 0.04-0.07,respectively,compared with the average value after interpolation using the precipitation forecast of 5 1 members in ECMWF en-semble prediction products.Results of the business trial in 2016 show that TS and ETS scores of the meth-od for interpretation rainstorms TS and ETS scores are improved by 0.07 and 0.05,respectively,com-pared with average values of pre-interpolation methods for the precipitation forecast of 5 1 members in EC-MWF ensemble prediction products.It shows that the proposed rainstorm precipitation method of ECM-WF ensemble prediction products has advantageous effects on forecasting and practical application fore-cast.%基于最大相关最小冗余度算法和随机森林回归算法,该文提出一种对欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)集合预报产品进行暴雨预报的释用方法.该方法采用最大相关最小冗余度算法,对 ECMWF集合预报的51个成员进行筛选,选取若干个与预报对象相关性最大、相互间冗余度最小的成员作为随机森林回归算法的输入因子.利用ECMWF集合预报降水量平均值对建模样本进行分类,使预报模型的建模样本更具有针对性.通过2012年4月—2015年12月的交叉独立样本试验预报和2016年1—9月的业务预报试验的统计结果表明:该释用方法的暴雨预报TS和ETS评分,均比采用ECMWF集合预报产品51个成员降水量预报进行插值后取平均值的释用方法分别提高了0.07和0.05以上,显示了较好的数值预报产品释用效果.
  • 摘要：为了定量探究雷暴云内电荷水平分布形式对闪电类型和先导传播行为的影响,建立了典型雷暴云电荷结构模型,引入控制电荷水平分布的参数,利用改进的随机放电参数化方案,开展二维高分辨率模拟试验.结果表明:主正电荷区电荷水平分布不均匀且向中心聚集时,产生的闪电类型多为正地闪和正极性云闪,随着电荷水平分布趋于均匀,闪电类型转变为负地闪;主负电荷区电荷水平分布趋于均匀时,闪电类型由负地闪向正极性云闪再向正地闪转变;闪电先导传播特征有较大差异,电荷分布密集不均匀时,先导被束缚在电荷高密度中心,主要在电荷区内发展,当电荷分布单一均匀时,先导能穿出电荷区并水平延伸十几至二十多千米.分析两个电荷区之间的电位分布发现,电荷区电荷水平分布趋于均匀时,位势线向电荷密度中心集中,整个位势阱水平延展,闪电触发点的初始电位值有较大差异,有利于闪电类型和先导传播行为的改变.%The charge structure of thunderstorm and its internal charge distribution is an important subject in the field of atmospheric electricity research,because it has a direct impact on characteristics of lightning dis-charge.Influences of different charge structures in thunderstorm on lightning discharge are studied in many aspects,such as lightning types,polarity,and scales,however,but there are few quantitative inves-tigations on effects of the horizontal distribution.Therefore,based on the existing stochastic lightning pa-rameterization scheme,a thundercloud model is set up based upon the work of Stolzenburg et al.(1998) revealing charge structure with four charge regions within convective updrafts in thunderstorms and a neg-ative screening layer usually exists at the top of storms.Parameters that control the horizontal distribution of charge is introduced,and then 2-dimensional fine-resolution lighting discharge simulations are per-formed.Results show that horizontal distribution forms of charge in upper positive region play a key role in lightning discharge,and with forms of charge changes from dense unevenness into single uniform,light-ning type changes from positive cloud-to-ground flashes to positive intra-cloud flashes,then into negative cloud-to-ground flashes,and finally into positive intra-cloud flashes in limited cases.When the distribution of charge levels in the main negative charge region tends to be uniform,the type of lightning changes from negative cloud-to-ground flashes to positive intra-cloud flashes,then to positive cloud-to-ground flashes and finally to positive intra-cloud flashes in limited cases.The horizontal distribution of space charge has a significant effect on the propagation of lightning leader.If it is dense uneven,the leader propagates in the center of the charge density,otherwise,the leader can extend more than 10 to 20 km in the horizontal di-rection.As the horizontal distribution of charge in the charge region tends to be uniform,potential lines between two charge regions are concentrated towards the charge density center,and the potential well ex-tends horizontally,causing the different initial potential values of the lightning trigger points,which result in the generation of different types of lightning and far-spreading lighting leader in the horizontal direction.
  • 摘要：利用1994—2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心(BCC)次季节到季节尺度模式(S2S)1994—2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡(QBWO)预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源.结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QB WO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QB WO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QB WO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件.
  • 摘要：该文介绍了中国科学院大气物理研究所(简称IAP)研制的电化学浓度电池(ECC)型臭氧(O3)探空仪基本性能测试和2013年上半年室外比对观测结果.结果表明:ECC的背景电流(Ibg)在0.1μA以下或更低;测量O3的响应时间为21～26 s;NO2(SO2)使O3测值偏高(低);抽气泵低压泵效系数(Cef)在100 hPa高度以下为1.0左右,在该高度以上上升,10 hPa达到1.17±0.10,5 hPa达到1.28±0.16,性能略低于同类进口产品(1.055以下).国产和进口仪器在气象探空或抽气泵等部件上具有良好兼容性;两者所测O3垂直分布廓线总体一致.IAP O3探空仪O3总量与Brewer光谱仪测值比值为0.9～1.1;Cef和Ibg订正有效降低了IAP O3探空仪在平流层低层与进口仪器测值的差别,这一订正对O3柱浓度在平流层和对流层的贡献分别为约15 DU和4～6 DU;在对流层,IAP O3探空仪测值与进口仪器间的绝对差别稳定且低于0.5 mPa;而平流层受泵效影响较明显.因此,建议IAP O3探空仪提高其Cef的稳定性,参与国际比对测试,国产气象探空平台数据接收处理增加必要的滤波技术以降低平流层探测数据(包括O3)的振荡.
  • 摘要：热害、洪涝、干旱和冷害是影响我国双季稻安全生产的主要气象灾害.气候变化背景下,双季稻遭受的极端气候事件增加,应对气象灾害的任务更加紧迫.我国双季稻主要气象灾害的时空分布特征不同:热害、洪涝和干旱发生频率整体呈增加趋势,西部南部较高;冷害弱减轻,北高南低,不同生育期存在差异.文中对双季稻生产的影响、监测预警技术(站点监测、遥感监测、指标预警、数理统计和动态机理模型)以及防御气象灾害的减灾保产技术进行了阐述.针对当前气候资源的时空分布特点以及关于双季稻气象灾害研究存在的不足,提出了双季稻气象灾害在未来研究中需要重点关注的科学问题,即双季稻气象灾变过程及其动态监测指标体系、气候变暖背景下双季稻气象灾害遥感监测技术及其气象灾损动态评估技术、星-地耦合的双季稻气象灾变过程数值模式研发、双季稻种植制度对气候变化的适应性及其抗灾减灾新技术与示范研究,为双季稻有效防御气象灾害和稳产高产提供依据和技术支撑.
  • 摘要：大气过氧化氢(H2O2)是一种重要的光化学产物,也是硫酸盐气溶胶生成及降水酸化过程的关键氧化剂.然而,我国对H2O2的观测研究较少,尤其对雾霾期间H2O2浓度变化特征认识不足.该文介绍了冬春时段(2016年12月—2017年4月)在北京城区中国气象局的H2O2观测结果,并结合同期O3,PAN,NOX,PM2.5等污染物和气象要素观测数据,分析H2O2浓度变化特征与影响因素.观测结果表明:观测期间H2O2体积混合比(简称为浓度)为(0.65±0.59)×10-9,其中,春季浓度(0.83±0.67)×10-9高于冬季浓度(0.51±0.47)×10-9;H2O2平均日变化基本呈现单峰特征,峰值出现在18:00—21:00,比其他地区峰值出现稍晚,并滞后于O3峰值时间4～7 h;相对湿度对H2O2日峰值时间和浓度水平有影响,小于55％时日峰值出现于18:00—24:00,平均峰值浓度1.52×10-9;大于65％时日峰值出现于11:00—16:00,日峰值浓度均小于1×10-9.H2O2,O3和PAN虽然同属光化学产物,但在不同污染状况下浓度水平和变化趋势差异明显;H2O2清洁日峰值浓度高于污染日,但11:00—15:00污染日浓度略高于清洁日.
  • 摘要：使用新建的强降水历史个例数据集、1981—2016年我国逐日降水量观测资料、2016年T639与ECMWF模式1～10 d的逐日降水量预报,采用经验正交函数展开(EOF)提炼出江淮地区强降水的典型模态,并运用场相似法对江淮地区强降水进行客观分型,分析强降水的环流演变;定量诊断型环流相似所得与实测环流和降水的对应关系.结果表明:江淮地区强降水可分为QⅠ,QⅡ和QⅢ3种类型,其中,QⅠ型降水中心位于江淮中部,QⅡ型表现为降水北多南少,QⅢ型表现为降水中间少南北多的分布.强降水对应的前期至当日,各型降水对应在亚洲的中高纬度地区均有显著的环流异常,且环流演变存在明显不同;但各类型降水对应的系统移动速度缓慢,且到强降水发生日江淮地区处于西太平洋副热带高压西北侧低值系统的控制,有利于该地区强降水的发生.按环流相似依不同时效得到的强降水发生日环流与实际环流存在很好的相关.独立试验中,该文方法对25 mm降水的TS评分在各时效均高于模式预报,50 mm降水的TS评分在3 d以上时效的评分也均高于模式预报.
  • 摘要：基于三维时域有限差分数值算法(3D-FDTD)建立了雷击高建筑物电磁场传播模型,研究了负地闪击中不同高度建筑物时回击垂直电场、角向磁场以及水平电场沿地表的传播规律.模拟结果表明:建筑物的高度对雷电电场峰值的影响显著,如当建筑物高度从100 m增加至600 m时,在距离d=100 m位置的垂直电场峰值减小了63％,水平电场正极性峰值的增加比例为84％、负极性峰值的绝对值增加比例高达130％;观测位置不变时,角向磁场峰值和水平电场正极性峰值均会随着建筑物高度的增加而增大;对于距离d=100 m,300 m时,垂直电场的峰值随着建筑物高度的增加而减小,而d=500 m时,垂直电场峰值随着建筑物高度的增加呈现出先增大后减小的趋势;此外,建筑物高度会影响垂直电场峰值对距离的敏感程度,建筑物越低(高),相应的垂直电场峰值随着观测距离增大衰减越快(慢).该文研究结果能够为现代化城市中高建筑物附近线缆、室外设备等的雷电防护方案设计提供参考.
  • 摘要：运用中尺度数值模式WRF耦合城市冠层模式(urban canopy model,UCM),对2016年登陆深圳的热带气旋妮妲(1604)(以下简称妮妲)进行数值模拟.高分辨率数值模拟较好地再现了妮妲登陆前后的强度、路径和累积降水.利用城市化过程当中城市冠层对热带气旋降水的敏感性试验结果表明:城市冠层会减弱对流运动和水汽的输送,导致热带气旋登陆后珠江口城市群区域累积降水量略减少.应用最新的土地利用资料进行的城市下垫面敏感性试验结果表明:由于城市下垫面粗糙度增加,造成登陆地面风的减速,强度减弱,潜热通量与2m高度比湿相应减小;城市下垫面粗糙度增加会加强该区域垂直对流运动以及不稳定能量增加,有利于降水增强,尤其在城市化下垫面处,热带气旋登陆后6 h累积降水增加量最大可超过20 mm.总体而言,对登陆热带气旋降水而言,耦合城市冠层使城市区域热带气旋降水减少,但在数值模拟中城市冠层影响作用不显著.城市化下垫面对登陆热带气旋暴雨的增幅作用明显,在登陆热带气旋降水预报中应重视.
  • 摘要：使用中国气象局大气探测综合试验基地35 GHz毫米波云雷达和L波段风廓线雷达2016年5月1日—7月31日在降水条件下的观测数据,根据不同观测模式下两部雷达得到的数据,计算在一定高度区间内不同下落速度的降水粒子反射率因子变化量,初步分析不同下落速度的降水粒子对毫米波衰减的影响.结果表明:在持续时间较长的层状云降水且降水粒子在雷达观测范围内均匀分布条件下,毫米波衰减与降水粒子下落速度呈近似线性关系,且毫米波经过的路径长度越长,衰减越大;毫米波在经过1110～2430 m,1110～3510 m的高度区间时,下落速度处于3.5～7.5 m·s-1之间的降水粒子对毫米波的衰减作用导致毫米波云雷达所测的等效反射率因子分别减小约1～7 dB和2～11 dB.
  • 摘要：土壤湿度是影响天气和气候非常重要的因子之一,但目前针对土壤湿度可预报性的研究报道相对较少.该文在对BCC CSM模式进行了适合的陆面初始化的条件下,设计了两组在中国东部地区采用不同土壤湿度初值的回报试验研究该地区土壤湿度的可预报性及初值对其可预报性影响问题.试验结果表明:BCC CSM模式在真实的外场强迫下可以模拟出相对合理的土壤湿度;土壤湿度的可预报性在表层约为3候,随着深度的增加,土壤湿度的可预报性持续时间增加,在中层预报性甚至能达到月尺度以上;初值对于土壤湿度的预报存在影响,在表层影响时间约为2～3候,影响时间随着深度增加;浅层土壤湿度受降水的影响较大,浅层土壤湿度变化滞后降水变化约1～2 d,中层土壤湿度变化与降水变化存在5 d左右的滞后关系.
  • 摘要：使用雪日直接界定法,建立了中国大陆长江以北地区(30°N以北)降水相态分离单临界气温统计模型,分东部季风区、西北干燥区和青藏高原区3个不同气候区独立样本建模,检验模型外推使用的可能性,并对单临界气温分离的雨夹雪偏差进行分析.结果表明:所有地区独立样本建立模型估算的单临界气温与根据天气现象记录确定的单临界气温相关性均达到0.05显著性水平,3个气候区独立建模能够估算出降水相态单临界气温的范围及区域特性;以东部季风区和青藏高原区为样本独立建模的估算结果好于西北干燥区;3个独立模型估算的单临界气温偏差绝对值不大于1℃的气象站都多于74％,估算的标准差偏差在-0.5～0.5℃之间的气象站数量占比77％,在-1.0～1.0℃之间的气象站数量占比90％;日平均气温低于单临界气温的雨夹雪日数和降水量与实际降雪日和降雪量的比率北部略小、南部较大,东部季风区的南部雨夹雪界定的雪日和雪量比率均超过100％;使用统计模型确定不同区域雨夹雪中界定的雪日和雪量比率分布也具有可行性.
  • 摘要：为探讨低温冷害对东北地区春玉米的影响,确定障碍型冷害对春玉米生育的影响程度,2015年以郑单958玉米品种为试验材料,利用人工气候室模拟低温(13℃,15℃,17℃)研究穗分化期(前期、中期、后期)春玉米产量构成因素和光合特性的影响.结果表明:春玉米在穗分化期受不同低温影响后,观测到的产量构成因素和光合特性的变化趋势相似;与对照相比,低温处理后,春玉米穗长和穗粒数显著减少、穗粒重显著降低,且温度越低,持续时间越长,影响越重;穗粗和百粒重变化不显著;穗分化前期低温对春玉米穗粒数影响最重,中期次之,后期较小;低温处理后春玉米叶片净光合速率、气孔导度、胞间CO2浓度和蒸腾速率均显著降低;穗分化期春玉米遭受障碍型低温冷害造成穗粒数减少是减产的主要原因.研究结果可为春玉米障碍型低温冷害影响评估提供参考.
  • 摘要：It is an important challenge in numerical weather and climate prediction to obtain accurate coupling be-tween physical parameterization and high resolution dynamic framework.Increased resolution in models and the use of large time-steps in semi-Langrangian advection stress the need for an equally accurate com-putation in time of the corresponding physical parameterizations and the physics-dynamics coupling on the temporal aspects.Physics-dynamics coupling on spatial aspects also plays a very important role on the ac-curacy of model predictions,for there is a choice for how to vertically arrange the predicted variables, namely,the Lorenz and Charney-Phillips grids. The physics-dynamics coupling on spatial aspects in GRAPES model is studied.As the Charney-Phil-ips grid is used,the horizontal velocity is staggered relative to potential temperature,which means poten-tial temperature and water substances are calculated at full levels,while horizontal velocity is calculated at half levels.In Lorenz physics scheme,all variables are set at half levels and the correspondent tendencies are estimated at half levels.The interpolation has to be used between full and half levels in physics-dynam-ics coupling before and after physics scheme package is called.The interpolation error is unavoidable and an unexpected zigzag noise appears because of the second-order difference in PBL(planetary boundary lay-er)scheme. In C-P PBL scheme,the momentum diffusivity K M is required at full levels and the heat diffusivity K H is required at half levels.It is easy to compute K M and K H in unstable PBL because K M and K H depend on the PBL height and surface variables.For local scheme in stable PBL and free convective atmosphere,dif-fusivities are functions of local Richardson number which has relation with both potential temperature and horizontal velocity.Here potential temperature gradient is averaged so that Richardson number is calculat-ed at full levels.K M can be calculated at the full level and K H can be averaged at the half level.The bound-ary condition is given by the surface flux according to the constant flux layer.C-P PBL parameterization is developed to assure the accurate coupling of PBL physics and vertical Charney-Phillips grid. Improvements are detected using C-P PBL parameterization spatial physics-dynamics coupling in GRAPES GFS model.The zigzag noise of temperature and moisture in PBL is removed and the corre-spondent profiles appear to be smooth with C-P PBL parameterization.The accuracy of PBL and dynamics coupling is improved,and an overall enhancement is found in the forecast of height and temperature.%基于 K 廓线闭合方案，通过考虑不稳定边界层和稳定边界层中热量交换系数在半层上求取及下边界条件的设置，将温湿倾向在整层上直接计算，设计了 Charney-Phillips 跳点（简称 C-P 跳点）的边界层方案，使之与 GRAPES全球模式的 C-P 跳点相协调，解决了 Lorenz 跳点物理过程与 C-P 跳点动力框架耦合时插值造成的不协调问题，同时避免了耦合时反复插值造成的误差，提高了边界层物理过程参数化方案及其反馈的准确性和合理性。试验表明：C-P 跳点边界层方案因为避免了温度和湿度在垂直方向上的插值，消除了温湿变量在垂直方向上的锯齿状抖动，使温湿廓线分布更合理，减小了模式预报误差，形势场的预报效果也得到一定改善。C-P 边界层方案的应用提升了 GRAPES 全球模式的总体预报性能。
  • 摘要：该文回顾了中国气象局全球中期数值天气预报系统 GRAPESGFS 的研发历程，重点介绍了近年来在 GRAPESGFS 研发过程中的重要进展，概要阐述了这些进展对 GRAPESGFS 业务化的贡献。动力框架方面的改进主要包括位温垂直平流的算法、极区滤波方案、标量平流方案、垂直速度衰减（damping）算法、提高模式分辨率等，改善了模式框架的稳定性、计算精度以及质量守恒性。物理过程方面的改进主要包括 RRTMG 辐射方案、CoLM 陆面过程方案、积云对流、边界层过程、双参数云物理方案，以及物理过程的调用计算等，全面提升了模式物理过程的预报能力。全球三维变分同化方面，研发了模式空间三维变分（3DVar）系统、资料质量控制和偏差订正技术、卫星资料同化方面的相关技术等。同时，对目前 GRAPESGFS2．0的预报能力进行了评估，总体来说，该系统各项预报指标全面超越 GRAPESGFS1．0，与 T639相比等压面要素预报在对流层也有明显优势，降水、2 m 温度等预报也优势明显。%The developing history of GRAPES global middle-range numerical weather prediction system (GRAPES GFS)of China Meteorological Administration is reviewed.Important progresses in recent years are summarized and their contributions to GRAPES GFS operation are introduced. From the aspect of dynamic frame aspect,an algorithm for vertical advection of temperature and the polar filter scheme are improved.New algorithms are introduced,including terrain filtering algorithm, scalar advection scheme with conservation and high accuracy,w-damping noise suppression algorithm,and Rayleigh friction in the stratosphere,etc.Besides,horizontal and vertical resolutions are enhanced.These improvements significantly improve the stability,accuracy and mass conservation of the dynamic core. From the aspect of physical process,the RRTMG radiation program is upgraded,the CoLM land sur-face process scheme is introduced,the cumulus convective scheme and boundary layer scheme are im-proved,and a two-parameter cloud physics scheme is developed.On these basis,the prediction cloud scheme is further developed,the interface between dynamic and physics is adjusted,the calculation of sea ice and surface albedo are also optimized.These improvements and optimizations improve the prediction ability of the physical package. From the aspect of global three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVar),the model space 3DVar is developed to avoid the interpolation error of the analysis space to the model space,fine quality control and deviation correction techniques are developed to achieve high quality observation data assimilation,and more satellite data assimilation techniques are adopted especially using satellite hyperspectral infrared de-tector as the focus. At the same time,the prediction ability of GRAPES GFS2.0 is being evaluated based on results of two-year assimilation forecast cycle test,and compared with T639.Generally speaking,the forecast indi-cators of the system are fully beyond the GRAPES GFS 1.0 version.Model outputs of isobaric elements in the troposphere forecast,including precipitation and 2 m temperature,have obvious advantages comparing with T639.
  • 摘要：Adjoint models are widely applied in numerical weather prediction.For instance,in four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar),they are the best method to efficiently determine optimal initial con-ditions.The minimization of the 4DVar cost function is solved with an iterative algorithm and is computa-tionally demanding.Though the minimization is usually performed with a much lower resolution than in forecast model,obtaining the optimal model state requires dozens of iterations,and the model parallel effi-ciency must be fast enough.However,the parallel efficiency of GRAPES global tangent linear model and adjoint model version 1.0 based on GRAPES global non-linear model 1.0 is so low that it seriously impacts the development of GRAPES 4DVar.In order to reduce the computational cost,a new tangent linear mod-el and adjoint model version 2.0 are re-designed and re-developed based on GRAPES global model version 2.0.By optimizing the program structure of tangent linear model,the calculating time of GRAPES tangent linear model can be best controlled within 1.2 times of GRAPES non-linear model’s consumption with only dynamic framework.And by methods transferring the model base state and trajectory to the adjoint model, the calculating time of GRAPES adjoint model can be best controlled within 1.5 times of GRAPES non-lin-ear model’s consumption.Therefore,the new GRAPES tangent linear model and adjoint model version 2.0 are very successful in terms of computational efficiency to speed up the development of GRAPES 4DVar. In practical applications,the tangent linear model and adjoint model is run at a lower resolution than the non-linear model,since the dynamics is already simplified through the reduction in horizontal resolu-tion,the linearized physics doesn’t necessarily need to be exactly tangent to the full physics.In principle, physical parameterizations can already behave differently between non-linear and tangent-linear models due to the change in resolution.In order to reduce computational cost,it is often necessary to select different set of simplified linearized parameterizations with the full physical processes of GRAPES forecast model. By decoupling base states calculation in GRAPES and the perturbation calculation in the tangent linear and adjoint model,the computational cost of GRAPES tangent and adjoint model with simplified physical pa-rameterizations increases only a little than no physical parameterizations versions,and the computational efficiency is higher than GRAPES forecast model with full physical parameterizations.%伴随技术是四维变分同化（4DVar）系统中计算代价函数梯度的最佳办法，切线性和伴随模式的效果和效率直接影响着4DVar 系统的发展。基于 GRAPES（Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System）全球切线性和伴随模式1．0版本，利用 GRAPES 全球模式2．0版本在并行框架和性能等方面的改善，重新优化和设计了GRAPES 全球切线性伴随模式2．0版本，提高了 GRAPES 全球切线性和伴随模式的效果和效率，优化了切线性模式程序结构，使其计算时间最优可控制在非线性模式的1．2倍以内；采用在切线性模式中保存基态的方法，重构了伴随模式的程序结构，使其计算时间最优控制在非线性模式的1．5倍以内；在 GRAPES 全球切线性物理过程的设计中，将线性物理过程的轨迹基态计算和切线性扰动计算解耦，提高了 GRAPES 全球切线性和伴随模式的计算效果和效率。
  • 摘要：近年来，GRAPES 全球三维变分同化系统分析性能和稳定性有了长足进步。该文简要介绍了近两年 GRAPES 全球三维变分同化技术的发展与改进情况，包括同化框架技术、资料同化应用技术与系统稳定性等方面。分析诊断了两年的同化循环试验结果，以探空资料作为参考，对 ERA-Interim 再分析场、NCEP FNL 分析场和 GRAPES 全球三维变分分析场的统计特征进行了比较；以 ERA-Interim 再分析场作为参考，对 NCEP FNL 分析场、T639分析场和 GRAPES 全球三维变分分析场进行比较。结果表明：GRAPES 分析场的质量明显优于 T639分析场，性能上达到了业务化的要求，但相比 NCEP FNL 分析场还有一定差距，特别是对流层内湿度分析场的误差还比较大。%In recent years,the capability and stability of GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)three-dimensional variation data assimilation system (3DVar)is upgraded and improved gradually in Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration.Improvements in analysis scheme and assimilating data technique for GRAPES 3DVar in the past two years are overviewed.Then the capability and performance of G-M3DVar latest version are evaluated by two-year length experiments.The accuracy and precision of G-M3DVar analyses is evaluated against radiosonde observation and ERA-Interim reanalysis and is compared with NCEP FNL and T639 analysis. Taken radiosonde data as a reference,the root mean square error and bias of pressure analyses of G-M3DVar are smaller than ERA-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis data in all domains in both win-ter and summer seasons.The root mean square error and bias of u wind analysis of G-M3DVar are larger than ERA-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis in the Tropics.However,in the Northern Hemi-sphere,the root mean square error and bias of u wind of G-M3DVar are similar to ERA-Interim below 250 hPa.In the Southern Hemisphere,the root mean squared error of u wind of G-M3DVar is the largest com-pared to EAR-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis.For humidity field,the bias of G-M3DVar anal-ysis is smaller than EAR-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis in the middle and high troposphere, which means that the humidity analysis of G-M3DVar is much drier than ERA-Interim and NCEP FNL da-ta especially in the middle and high troposphere.Taken ERA-Interim reanalysis data as a reference,the root mean square error of G-M3DVar analysis is smaller than the T639 analysis but larger than NCEP FNL analysis data for all fields excluded the humidity.In conclusion,the quality of G-M3DVar analysis is better than T639 analysis and satisfies requirements of operational run. In recent years,the gap of analyses between G-M3DVar and advanced numerical weather centers such as ECMWF keeps growing,although the accuracy of G-M3DVar analysis is improved significantly in the past two years.Much more focus and works should be paid in the following aspects.First,the background error covariance (BE)is estimated by National Meteorological Center of USA (NMC)method,which is static and climatological.The static and climatological BE is far from meeting requirements of the modern numerical weather prediction.Second,the quality control scheme for all observations in G-M3DVar is still relatively inexactly and incapable.Third,the bias correction scheme for microwave radiance in G-M3DVar is still static which has been proved to have some shortcomings.
  • 摘要：利用1991—2014年新疆16个国家基准气象站逐时降水资料，分析了新疆夏季不同区域降水日变化基本特征，揭示出新疆夏季降水日变化呈现显著的南、北疆区域差异，有别于我国中东部的一些新事实。结果显示：北疆降水量日变化呈现准单峰型特征，峰值主要发生在傍晚前后（16：00—20：00，地方时，下同）；南疆降水量日变化呈现三峰特征，峰值分别出现在傍晚（17：00—18：00）、午夜后（00：00—01：00）和上午（10：00）。新疆夏季降水事件以6 h 以内的短历时性质为主（平均为85％，比例明显高于我国中东部），而持续12 h 以上的较长历时降水事件偶有发生；在天山东麓以外的新疆绝大部分地区，6 h 以内短历时降水事件对总降水量的贡献率达54％，高于我国中东部地区。新疆西部和北疆北部降水量日变化主峰的贡献者是2～3 h 短持续性降水为主的事件；而天山中—东部降水量日变化峰值则是来自于12 h 内各不同持续时间降水事件的大致均等贡献。%Fundamental diurnal variation features of summer precipitation over Xinjiang are investigated based on hourly precipitation data of 1991-2014 from all 16 national stations in the target region,and distinct char-acteristics on the diversity of diurnal variations of summer precipitation between Northern and Southern Xinjiang are revealed.Results show that the diurnal variation of the precipitation amount in Northern Xin-jiang presents nearly a single peak and trough,with the maximum at dusk (1600 -2000 LST)and mini-mum about one-third proportion of peak value at noon time,and the precipitation amount almost decrease monotonically during the whole night.Differently,the diurnal variation of the precipitation amount in Southern Xinjiang shows triple peaks and troughs,with peaks at about dusk(1700-1800 LST),after the midnight (0000-0100 LST)and near the noon (1000 LST),respectively.The difference of single peak pattern between Northern Xinjiang and central-east China is the accumulation of different situations instead of similar peak overlay.In addition,the morning when precipitation peak value appears in Southern Xin-jiang is opposite to that weaker or weakest time in all day in central-east China. The occurrence time of maximum average precipitation intensity and maximum hourly accumulative precipitation is more consistent with the counterpart of maximum hourly accumulative precipitation fre-quency,and more remarkable with the region where daily variation of precipitation presents multi-peak patterns,showing more contribution of precipitation intensity than frequency to accumulative precipitati-on,which is also an important characteristic of Xinjiang,especially in Southern Xinjiang.Short-duration precipitation within 6 hours are dominated events in summer (the average value is 85 percent which is sig-nificantly higher than that in central-east China),and precipitation events lasting longer than 12 hours happen rarely.Contribution rates of short-duration precipitation events within 6 hours in total precipitation are up to 54% which is higher than that in central-east China in most region except the east side of Tians-han in Xinjiang. Except in the south edge of Tarim Basin,there are close relations between the precipitation diurnal cy-cle and its duration in most areas of Xinjiang,but not the same as those in central-east China.Namely,2-3-hour short-duration precipitation events contribute to the peak value of the total precipitation diurnal cycle in western and Northern Xinjiang,whereas every duration event within 12 hours has nearly equal contribution to the maximum of the total precipitation diurnal cycle in central to eastern Tianshan Mountains.
  • 摘要：After operational implementation of GRAPES Meso V3.0 in March 2013,some problems are found, which include over-prediction of precipitation,integration instability,large 2 m temperature forecast er-rors,insufficient observations assimilated,and coarser resolution.To deal with these problems,a lot of changes are made,mainly including introducing variational quality control scheme,applying the bias cor-rection for sounding humidity observation,assimilating GPS/PW data,FY-2E cloud drift wind and radio occultation observation,increasing resolution of the model,using the fourth horizontal diffusion scheme, adjusting the coupling scheme between dynamic core and WSM6 microphysics parameterization,optimizing land surface model,and improving diagnostic algorithm of composite radar reflectivity.GRAPES Meso is also upgraded from Version 3.0 to Version 4.0 by integrating all of the progresses mentioned above.One month hindcast experiments are implemented and results show that,compared with GRAPES Meso V3.0, ETS scores of precipitation forecasts for GRAPES Meso V4.0 are obviously higher for all five thresholds of 24 h accumulated precipitation,and the bias is largely decreased for light,moderate and heavy rainfall thresholds.The monthly mean precipitation pattern and intensity are both closer to observation,and the detail precipitation distribution can be reproduced better.Daily time evolutions of root mean square errors for 2 m temperature forecasts are very similar,while the amount of V4.0 is much less than that of V3.0. Monthly mean errors are reduced about 1-2℃ over most region of China and even 3 -5℃ over some re-gion for 24 h forecast.It is apparent that GRAPES Meso V4.0 performs better for height,temperature and wind fields,as anomaly correlation coefficients of these fields at 500 hPa are larger and root mean square errors of these fields at 850 hPa are less than those by GRAPES Meso V3.0.The forecast skill of GRAPES Meso is largely improved from Version 3.0 to Version 4.0.Also,the unified process control has been implemented for GRAPES Meso and GRAPES RAFS (Rapid Analysis and Forecast System),which can reduce the system maintenance and management costs significantly.GRAPES Meso V4.0 is transi-tioned into operational run at China National Meteorological Center with horizontal resolution of 0.1°× 0.1°and vertical resolution of 50 levels from July 2014 and the whole system running is stable.%针对 GRAPESMeso V3．0存在的降水量偏大、模式运行不稳定、近地面温度预报偏差较大、可同化资料偏少以及分辨率偏低等问题，开展了多方面的改进工作：引入变分质量控制以及探空湿度的偏差订正，实现了 GPS／PW资料、FY-2E 云导风资料以及无线电掩星资料的同化应用，提高了模式分辨率，引入四阶水平扩散方案，调整了微物理参数化方案与动力框架的耦合方案，完善了地面辐射能量平衡方程以及优化了后处理雷达组合反射率因子的诊断方案，并集成所有改进成果形成新的业务化 GRAPESMeso V4．0。批量试验结果表明：GRAPESMeso V4．0降水 ETS 评分普遍提高，同时预报偏差明显降低，月平均降水更接近实况，且能够较好地刻画雨带细节；2 m 温度预报偏差有较为显著的改善，大部分地区24 h 预报有1～2℃左右的降低，有些地区有3～5℃的降低；GRAPESMeso V4．0对高度场、温度场和风场的改进效果比较显著，500 hPa 的温度、风速、位势高度场的相关系数均有显著提高，850 hPa 的均方根误差也明显降低，整体性能明显高于 GRAPESMeso V3．0。
  • 摘要：Based on the daily precipitation data of 243 stations in Fujian,Guangdong,Guangxi during 1961 -2012,indices(intensity of daily rainstorm I RD ,intensity of persistent rainstorm I RS ,intensity of South Chi-na pre-flood season persistent rainstorm I RZ )are calculated and persistent rainstorm processes are selected. Indices reveal decadal variation characteristics of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm by kinds of mutation test and percentile method.It indicates that the decadal variation of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm can be divided into three sections,multiple(1961 -1972)-fewer(1973 -1991 )-multiple(1992 -2012). The present stage is in multiple sections with stronger intensity and longer duration;pre-flood season pre-cipitation exhibits a significant low-frequency oscillation characteristic.The decadal variation of duration and intensity of persistent rainstorm during pre-flood season are closely related to that of configuration and intensity of low-frequency periodic signal.There is a positive correlation between the intensity of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm and the low-frequency intensity of 10-60 days with the intensity strongest in 10-20 days,the second in 30 -60 days’and the third in 20 -30 days’.The low-frequency signal of Guangdong and Fujian is more obvious than Guangxi in all sections.Frequent,strong and long persistent rainstorm is more likely to occur in multiple sections as the precipitation intensity of low-frequency signal oscillating acutely,and vice versa.The decadal meridional propagation features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation and mechanism and its possible impact on the decadal variation of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm are also studied by using East Asia-western North Pacific ISO index(EAWNP ISO).The posi-tion of the meridional propagation of the East Asia-Pacific Northwest Pacific with different phases can be seen according to different phases’reconstruction of 850 hPa wind speed and OLR anomaly field.The dec-adal variation of tropical low-frequency northward movement signal cycle and intensity may probably be one of the main causes that lead to the decadal variation of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm.Since tropical low-frequency signal has various cycles,it may cause low-frequency variation of circulation system advantage to the precipitation of pre-flood season,which corresponds to the low-frequency variation char-acteristics of precipitation there and leading to changes of the intensity and duration of persistent rainstorm when low-frequency convection propagates northward to southeast coast of China.The longer (shorter) cycle and stronger (weaker)intensity of tropical low-frequency signal northward to southeast coast of Chi-na is,the longer (shorter)duration and stronger (weaker)intensity of pre-flood season persistent rain-storm may be.%应用福建、广东、广西243个气象站1961—2012年逐日降水资料，构建华南前汛期暴雨强度指数，揭示了前汛期持续性暴雨年代际变化特征及其可能机理。研究表明：前汛期持续性暴雨经历了多发（1961—1972年）—少发（1973—1991年）—多发（1992—2012年）3个阶段，目前仍处于多发期，具有持续时间较长且强度增强的特点；由于前汛期降水的低频振荡受热带低频信号北传的调制，因此，导致这种显著年代际变化的可能成因是热带低频信号北传的周期和强度的年代际差异，当热带低频信号北传至华南时低频周期长（短）且强度强（弱），则前汛期易出现持续时间长（短）且强度强（弱）的持续性暴雨。
  • 摘要：使用 INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis）多源资料融合分析和短临外推预报系统的预报结果作为气象强迫场，驱动一路面温度理论预报模型（Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads， METRo），开展江苏省高速公路夏季路面高温预报试验，并使用公路沿线逐小时的路面温度观测资料对预报结果进行检验。结果表明：该预报方法能够较好地预报出高速公路沿线日最高路面温度的逐日变化趋势，以及日最高路面温度的大范围空间分布特征。平均日最高路面温度预报绝对偏差为4．1℃，平均相对偏差为10．8％。其中，日最高路面温度预报绝对偏差在5℃以内的站次占总数的64．5％，相对偏差在15％以内的站次占总数的74．6％，比常规业务预报方法分别提高了23．1％和25．3％。但该预报方法对较小的温度波动以及局地性较强的极端温度分布特征的预报技巧还需进一步提高。%The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA)system is an observation-based analysis and forecasting system,in which measurements from automatic weather stations,radar data,sat-ellite data,3D fields from the operational numerical weather prediction(NWP)model and elevation data with high-resolution are incorporated.INCA system adds value to the classical NWP forecast by providing high-resolution analyses,nowcasts and improved forecasts both within and beyond the nowcasting range. A coupling of INCA system and the Environment and Temperature of Roads (METRo)Model is used to study the forecast of high road temperature during summer along highways in Jiangsu Province. Result shows that the highest road temperature forecasting is improved significantly through the cou-pling of the forecast with observations during the overlap period by adjusting the radiative fluxes to local conditions.The absolute error of the road temperature at 1400 BT is reduced by about 3℃ compared with results with non-coupling.The daily variation and the spatial distribution of the highest road temperature at 1400 BT can be captured by this forecasting system.The average absolute error for the daily highest road temperature is 4.1℃,and the average relative error is about 10.8%.Percentages of stations with ab-solute error below 5℃ is about 64.5%,and percentages of stations with relative error below 15% is about 74.6%,which is higher than that of the conventional method (a statistic road temperature forecast model driven by atmospheric forecasting from BJ-RUC)by about 23.1%,25.3%.Analysis for the hot day shows that the level and of the highest road temperature and the location of the highest road temperature center can be reproduced well by this system.The level of the highest road temperature on more than 90%of stations is in accordance with the observation.The absolute error of the road temperature forecasting is below 5℃ for most stations.While the road temperature forecasting for the hottest points are lower than the observation.The distribution of the forecasting error of the road temperature at 1400 BT shows scat-tered features and there is no obvious positive (negative)error center.Besides,the forecast skill of small fluctuations of road temperature needs to be improved. The source of the road temperature forecasting errors are from both the road temperature forecast model and the numerical weather prediction products.The METRo model is also driven by the station weather observation to test which part is the main error.It estimates that about 70% of error is from the model itself,and notes that the cloud amount and surface pressure observations are from nearby weather stations.
  • 摘要：In order to get more accurate cloud initial fields in GRAPES Meso model,the ARPS cloud analysis scheme is introduced.With some modifications or improvements based on the rational law in cloud macro-characteristic and micro-characteristic,the cloud analysis scheme is used to set up a local cloud analysis scheme which suitable for domestic numerical weather prediction model and local synoptic observations. Based on the background field,it integrates data sources from Doppler weather radar three-dimensional mosaic reflectivity data,geostationary meteorological satellite data,and surface observation.The cloud in-itial information is analyzed based on cloud physical laws of thermodynamics and dynamics and the ob-served empirical relationship.After the cloud analysis,analyzed three dimensional fields which include in-formation of cloud hydrometeors are introduced by nudging technique for initialization of GRAPES Meso model.One-month (15 Jul 2014-14 Aug 2014)time serial of experiments in different horizontal resolution (0.03°×0.03°,0.1°×0.1°)are designed to verify the performance of the cloud analysis scheme.Case stud-y shows that cloud macro-characteristic and cloud initial hydrometeors of synoptic system,such as ty-phoon,squall line etc.,could be represented better by using cloud analysis scheme.The satellite cloud simulation technology of university of Wisconsin is adopted to produce the satellite cloud simulation prod-uct,which is convenient to compare the cloud product of model output with FY-2 meteorological satellite cloud products.The comparing result shows that 1 h nowcasting cloud of GRAPES Meso model with cloud information initialized is close to satellite measurment in cloud macro-characteristic and cloud spatial distribution,while the one without cloud information initialized is missing and the brightness temperature is higher than satellite measurment.Until 6 hours,the nowcasting cloud of cloud analysis scheme is more similar to satellite measurment than the one without cloud analysis scheme,and the brightness temperature simulation is reasonable.As for performance of precipitation forecast,it is found that forecast with the cloud analysis has a significant positive impact on short range precipitation forecast.The 1-hour precipitati-on forecast with cloud analysis is closer to observation,and the positive effect can last for over twelve hours,which meets the demand for the short time nowcasting operational system.Furthermore,the spin-up time is also shortened.In long time experiments,the statistical variable of equitable threat score (ETS) of the precipitation forecast is calculated.At the first 6 h forecast in horizontal resolution of both 0.03°× 0.03°and 0.1°×0.1°,the ETS of the precipitation forecast with cloud analysis is obviously increased com-pared with the one without cloud analysis.In the following three 6 h forecast,the positive effects decrease as forecast time increasing.%围绕 GRAPESMeso 的云初始场形成，以 ARPS 模式云分析方案为基础，优化诊断后应用我国风云二号静止气象卫星云产品、多普勒天气雷达三维组网拼图产品等观测资料结合模式背景信息，根据云热力-动力学原理及观测试验经验关系等，对云初始场的信息进行分析并通过松弛逼近同化方法实现对云内微物理信息同化应用。GRAPESMeso 中采用优化后的云初始场方案，水平分辨率为0．03°×0．03°和0．1°×0．1°的1个月（2014年7月15日—8月14日）连续试验和个例分析结果显示：云初始场形成方案能够分析出飑线等天气系统的云系和云内微物理变量特征。从模拟云图看，包含云初始场信息的 GRAPESMeso 的云系的形态特征和分布范围短时临近预报结果更为准确。云初始场信息同化应用后，在1 h 的时间尺度上，即可预报出与实况更为接近的降水；0～12 h 时间范围内对降水均有积极的影响，可满足短时临近预报的需求，降水量级略偏大。批量连续试验（水平分辨率为0．03°×0．03°和0．1°×0．1°）的各个量级降水 ETS（equitable threat score）评分都显著提高。
  • 摘要：利用中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院玛曲土壤温湿观测网2008—2009年、2013—2014年数据验证了3套再分析资料 ERA-Interim，CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）和 JRA-55（Japanese 55-year Reanalysis）在黄河源区的适用性，结合中国气象数据网玛曲气象站1980—2014年观测资料与 CLM4．5（Community Land Model 4．5）进一步分析了黄河源区近35年气候变迁、土壤温湿分布和变化，结果表明：CFSR 能够较好地描绘黄河源区土壤湿度变化，ERA-Interim 对于土壤温度刻画能力更强，JRA-55效果较差；35年来气温、土壤温湿总体呈上升趋势且发生突变；近年来10 cm 土壤温湿有暖干化趋势，降水量稍有增加，土壤冷季冻结周期变短，暖季持续时间拉长；CLM4．5模拟精度高，能够较好地刻画源区土壤温湿变化细节，两湖及黄河周边暖季为冷湿中心，冷季为暖干中心。%The source region of the Yellow River(SRYR)located in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau,is the crucial water conservation area.Soil temperature & moisture variations and associated climate effects have important implications to the change of runoff.Three kinds of frequently used reanalysis datasets,ERA-Interim,CFSR,and JRA-55 are tested using field observations of Maqu Soil Temperature & Moisture Network so as to find the optimal one for SRYR.Combining with observations of Maqu Station,the cli-mate changes in recent 35 years and the temporal variation of soil moisture & temperature are analyzed.In addition,their spatial variations are depicted by reanalysis datasets and CLM4.5(Community Land Model 4.5).Main results are as follows. CFSR is the best dataset to depict the soil moisture variation,and ERA-Interim is better on soil tem-perature,while JRA-55 is unsuited.Soil temperature has an indication to the climate change,but its re-sponse is less significant than air temperature.Soil moisture has an increasing trend,because freezing time becomes shorter and melting time is extending.Air temperature,soil temperature & moisture,except for precipitation,have abruptions in the last 35 years.Air temperature starts to abrupt during 1997 -2000, after that it shows significant upward trend.Precipitation decreases from 1987 to 2004 and increases after 2005.Abrupt change of soil temperature takes place during 1985 -1986,and beyond the belief line after 1994 with prominent rising.It means soil temperature is more sensitive than air temperature to climate warming.Soil moisture has an upward abruption in 2002.Soil temperature & moisture in 10 cm depth be-come warm and dry in recent years.Lakes and the Yellow River are the cold and wet centers in warm sea-son,and turn warm and dry in cold season.CLM4.5 has high simulation accuracy,and is capable of de-scribing detailed changes of soil in SRYR.All in all,it is better than reanalysis dataset in simulating the spatial variation of soil temperature & moisture,but still has a long way comparing with observations.
  • 摘要：Studies on near-surface gust characteristics in high winds are necessary for weather services.Using the daily 10 min data from automatic weather stations in Zhejiang Province during 2011-2013,characteristics of near-sur-face gust factors in several kinds of high winds caused by cold air masses,tropical cyclones and abruptly severe convections,are investigated over the offshore and in-land areas of Zhejiang Province.Spatial distributions of wind velocities and gust factors are especially considered,as well as the relationship among gust factors,geographical el-ements and mean wind speeds.The fuzzy cluster mean (FCM)and stepwise regression methods are applied as well to do the weather station clusters under different weather patterns and set up gust factor forecast models.Result shows that the gust factor distribution displays similarly both in cold air and tropical cyclone strong winds although spatial speed distributions might be different from each other,and wind directions show no effects on gust factor distributions.Disastrous winds usually happen over the offshore seas and coastal areas,with gust factors less than 1.5 and the isolines paralleling to the coastline and descending eastwards.However,over in-land areas of Zhejiang Province,gust factors are generally greater than 2.0 and even more than 3.0 over the hilly regions with gentle wind speeds,indicating enhancing effects of hilly terrain.The average gust factor is more than 1.8 under severe convective systems,which is greater than operational regulations.The convective gale events could occur at any lo-cations within Zhejiang Province,but stations with occurring probabilities more than 10% mainly lay in the coastal and offshore Zhejiang Province,and the terrain roughness doesn’t show much influence.Gust factors perform well related to 10 min mean wind speeds and altitudes in high winds by cold air masses and tropical cyclones.FCM a-nalysis indicates that there are few differences in station distributions between clod air mass and tropical cyclone gale events,stations located in the northern and coastal regions often differ from those in the middle and southern areas in Zhejiang Province,and stations with altitudes more than 400 m are different from those with altitudes low-er than 70 m.Stepwise regression is carried out to set up forecasting models between gust factors and mean winds and station altitudes before and after FCM clusters,verifications imply that FCM could help improve forecast abili-ty of the models.The regression model for typeⅠtends to overestimate gust factors at stations with relative high altitudes,on the contrary,the model for typeⅡtends to underestimate gust factors at stations with relative low al-titudes.%阵风特性研究是大风预报和服务的基础。基于2011—2013年浙江省自动气象站逐日逐10 min 测风资料，分析了浙江省陆地和近海海面冷空气、热带气旋和强对流大风的阵风系数特征。结果表明：冷空气和热带气旋大风阵风系数空间分布基本相同，大风主要发生在近海海面和沿海地区，海面阵风系数一般小于1．5，等值线平行于海岸线且自西向东逐渐减小，陆地阵风系数一般大于2．0，山区可超过3．0，表现出地形对阵风系数的增强作用。强对流大风阵风系数明显高于业务规范平均值，发生地点遍及浙江省各地，但发生概率超过10％的站点主要位于沿海地区和近海海面。风向基本不影响阵风系数空间分布。冷空气和热带气旋站点阵风系数与海拔高度有较高正相关性。模糊聚类分析发现：浙江省400 m 以上山区站与70 m 以下的低海拔站点在阵风系数特征上分属不同空间类型；基于逐步回归建立站点阵风系数预报模型，检验表明：模糊聚类可帮助提高模型阵风系数预报能力。
  • 摘要：在综合考虑雨凇和雾凇积冰增长以及热力融冰和升华脱冰的基础上,建立了一个基于常规气象资料的小时标准冰厚模型.模拟2008年和2013年浙江省两次严重电网覆冰灾害期间的标准冰厚,并用事故线路调查资料、电线积冰观测站和模拟导线拉力监测点的观测资料进行验证分析.结果显示:事故线路的最大标准冰厚观测值与模拟值相关关系达到0.01显著性水平,电线积冰观测站的日标准冰厚观测值与模拟值的平均绝对偏差小于0.6 mm,模拟导线拉力监测点的小时标准冰厚模拟值与观测值的决定系数为0.8093,均方根误差为0.8 mm.说明模型比较准确地描述了天气过程对电线积冰的影响,能够较好地反映标准冰厚的空间分布规律和时间变化特征.%The effective monitoring and early warning of ice on transmission lines are required to guarantee the reliable operation of power grid.However,due to the sparse coverage of wire icing observation stations,the regional ice loads can hardly be characterized by in-situ measurements.To solve this problem,an hourly standard ice thickness model using conventional meteorological data has been developed.In this model,the evolution of icing event is divided into different phases,namely accretion phase,persistence phase and shedding phase.During accretion phase,the ice weight increases by glaze and rime-ice accreting on power lines.During persistence phase,there is no change of ice weight.And in the phase of shedding,the ice weight decreases due to melting or sublimation.Each icing event includes at least an accretion phase and a shedding phase,and may also include other accretion,persistence and shedding phases.The simulation consists of three steps.The phase of icing event and the type of ice accretion (or shedding) is determined by hourly meteorological data.According to identified results,the variation of ice weight in the current hour is estimated using different methods..The variation is zero in the phase of persistence;the glaze and rime ice accretion is respectively simulated by adjusting Jones' simple model and Mackinnon model;the melting and sublimation ice is estimated using experimental equations presented by Farzaneh et al.The varied weight of current hour is summed with the ice weight of the previous hour to get the ice thickness of current hour.Using hourly meteorological data from more than 2000 stations located in Zhejiang and neighboring provinces,along with NCEP FNL analysis data,the model is employed to estimate the hourly standard ice thickness with 0.01°× 0.01° spatial resolution in Zhejiang Province during periods from 11 Jan to 20 Feb in 2008,and from 1 Jan to 10 Jan in 2013.Furthermore,it is evaluated and validated by the power system fault data,survey data of damaged transmission lines,wire icing observation,and the in-situ wire tension measurements.Results indicate that the model can well capture the influence of weather on icing events,and also well characterize the spatial distribution and the temporal variation of wire icing events.At the wire tension monitoring sites,the simulated hourly standard ice thickness is generally in agreement with measured values,with determination coefficient of 0.5209-0.9287(with a mean value of 0.8093),and root mean square error of 0.1-2.4 mm (with a mean value of 0.8 mm).
  • 摘要：Variational data assimilation is a minimization problem of the cost function.Main characteristics of the problem are that the cost function is quadratic or nearly-quadratic and Hessian matrix of the cost function is sparse,symmetric and positive-definite.Iterative methods are suitable for solving this problem,but the calculation of the cost function and its gradient is very expensive,especially in four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar).To find an optimal solution and achieve acceptable convergence rate,it is necessary to precondition the minimization algorithm.GRAPES global 4DVar system is developed for the operational use in China Meteorological Administration (CMA).It solves the minimization using L-BFGS algorithm,which is well known as a practical algorithm for variational data assimilation and originated from the works of Nocedal and Liu et al.It uses the information from the previous m iterations to compute the BFGS matrix which is an approximation to the inverse of Hessian matrix.GRAPES global 4DVar system adopts the incremental approach.In the incremental 4DVar,the inner loop minimization is solved several times with multi-outer-loop updates to find a more accurate solution of the nonlinear problem.It's possible to use information from previous minimization to precondition the next minimization.It is also related to the so-called warm-start of L-BFGS.Preconditioned L-BFGS is introduced and impacts of the preconditioning of L-BFGS on the convergence rate in 4DVar experiments of real observations are evaluated.Firstly,a case study is performed with four inner loop minimizations and 50 iterations during each inner loop minimization.Since the preconditioning works from the second inner loop minimization,nonlinear observation terms in the cost function are compared during 50-200 iterations.Results show the preconditioning of L-BFGS is effective,especially during the second inner loop minimization which uses the information from the first inner loop minimization.The scheme which uses information from the previous day to precondition the 4DVar minimization at the next day is also investigated.Given the small change of Hessian matrix between 6 and 24 hours,it may also be positive to precondition the 4DVar minimization using information from the previous day.Analysis-forecast cycling experiments are also carried out in May 2013.The performance of the preconditioned L-BFGS is consistent,leading to quicker convergence of 4DVar minimization.It is encouraging that the 4DVar run-time is reduced significantly,which is vital to the operational use of GRAPES global 4DVar system in the future.%在进行多次外循环更新的增量分析框架下,前一次极小化迭代过程中产生的信息可提供给下一次极小化做预调节.该文在GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统中对极小化算法——L-BFGS算法实施了这种预调节,通过全观测的个例试验和批量试验进行评估,发现进行预调节后L-BFGS算法的收敛效率得到明显提高,而且在1个月的循环试验中表现十分稳定.该工作可以帮助GRAPES全球四维变分同化系统有效减少极小化的迭代次数,有利于满足业务化运行的时效要求.另外,间隔6h和间隔24 h的两次4DVar分析对应的海森矩阵变化不大,因此,前一时刻极小化过程产生的信息提供给后一时刻的极小化进行预调节也有一定效果.
  • 摘要：通过统计全国探空系统早期换型时获取的59个高空站L波段雷达-GTS1型电子探空仪系统相对于59-701探空系统在1000 hPa到200 hPa之间各规定等压面相对湿度的差值,分析探空系统换型对于相对湿度一致性的影响.结果表明:GTS1型探空仪测得的相对湿度明显比59型探空仪低,且差值随高度增加而增大,近地层二者相对湿度差值低于5％,200 hPa高度二者差值达到20％以上;冬季两套探空系统相对湿度的差值明显大于夏季,且差值随高度分布情况不尽相同.分析表明:相对湿度差值的变化除了与探空仪施放过程中外界温度变化相关,还与湿度变化趋势和变化幅度密切相关,湿度传感器存在湿滞回线和滞后现象.分析还发现,太原无线电一厂与上海长望气象科技有限公司制造的59型探空仪的性能差异不明显,且GTS1型探空仪与59型探空仪的两种湿度传感器在白天受太阳辐射的残余影响差异也不明显.%The importance of consistency of upper-air observation reports in serial of space and time is well recognized by users and upper-air observation operators.It is the most effective way that the systematic differences between observations of pre and post updating radiosondes can be obtained using the method of direct intercomparison.To achieve that,two datasets are used to analyze effects of pre and post radiosondes updating on the relative humidity (RH) observed by 59-701 sounding system and L-band sounding system.The sensor for humidity measurement changes from goldbeaters skin to a carbon hygristor.Onemonth RH data of these two different sounding systems are compared directly to analyze the consistency of pre and post updating.Average RH biases between 59-701 and L-band sounding system from 1000 hPa to 200 hPa specified isobaric surface are analyzed.Results reveal that without considering the radiosonde errors upon the place,the season of the year,the time of the day,the RH of L-band is obviously lower than that of 59-701 sounding system in China,and differences are increased with altitudes.The RH bias of two sounding systems is less than 5％ near the surface,but the value reaches more than 20％ at 200 hPa.It shows that the RH bias of two sounding systems in winter is greater than that in summer,but differences with height are not the same in detail.Whether winter or summer,several stations reflect the problem that differences of average RH bias are much larger than the overall average RH bias,which shows that the difference change of average RH bias is not only related with the ambient temperature change,but also related to the change of RH.This phenomenon reflect possible "wet hysteresis loop" effect of humidity sensors.The difference of humidity components performance is not obvious between the type 59 radiosondes from Taiyuan and Shanghai.The effect of solar radiation on humidity components of these two types of radiosondes is also not obvious.Integrating comparison results,it shows that the RH bias between 59-701 and L-band sounding systems isn't affected by the type 59 radiosonde manufacturers,and RH observations are all affected by the ambient temperature,lag and wet hysteresis.But the influence details in different situations should be study further,and these results can be used as reference of correction by related departments.
  • 摘要：The statistical downscaling method and predictability of summer rainfall anomaly over the HuangHuai Valley (SRAHV) is studied based on station precipitation data,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and BCC_CSM1.1m hindcasts from 1991 to 2011.Firstly,correlation coefficients between SRAHV and seasonal circulations in troposphere are calculated.In the high troposphere,significant circulation patterns are the South Asia high,the westerly over Eurasia,200 hPa zonal wind over the southern of South China Sea and the Philippines.In the middle level,significant predictors are blocking high over Ural and west Pacific subtropical high.In the low level,southern anomaly wind over South China is the key factor.These predictors show clearly positive relationship with SRAHV and may lead to more rainfall.Secondly,the performance of BCC_CSM1.1m is diagnosed on the basis of summer hindcast circulations.Skills of 200 hPa and 500 hPa potential heights,200 hPa zonal wind,850 hPa meridional wind by BCC_CSM1.1m are relatively high in some key regions which may affect the SRAHV in reasonable physical mechanism.Six key factors are selected based on the consistent anomaly ratio of factors between BCC_ CSM1.1m and reanalysis data,as well as the ratio between SRAHV and predictors from reanalysis data.The optimal sub-tree regression (OSR) is used as transfer function in the statistical downscaling model.Six predictors are tested by one-year-out cross validation sample tests.The consistent ratio between observation of SRAHV and prediction is 61％.By deleting dependent factors,three independent predictors (200 hPa potential height over the Ural,200 hPa potential height over the South Asia high region to South China,200 hPa zonal wind over South China Sea to South Philippines) are used to make the statistical downscaling model again,and the accuracy is improved to 72 ％.Further studies show that the predictability of statistical downscaling model comes from the skill of three key predictors by BCC_CSM1.1m,representing the strength of blocking activity over the Ural,the strength and position of the South Asia high,and the strength of west anomaly wind over the west tropical Pacific.When model output show high skill on three factors,skills of downscaling model are also high and predictions of SRAHV are close to observations in the years of 1994,1995,1998,2004 and 2010.In the years of 1991,1996 and 1997,BCC_CSM1.1m performs poorly especially on west anomaly wind over the west tropical Pacific.The correlation coefficient of west anomaly wind over the west tropical Pacific and SRAHV is 0.55 which passing the test of 0.01 level,indicating BCC_CSM1.1m's important role in the statistical downscaling model,which determines the prediction skill of SRAHV.%利用1991-2011年黄淮地区夏季降水、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和国家气候中心第2代动力气候模式(BCC_CSM1.1m)夏季回报结果,研究黄淮地区夏季降水降尺度预测模型和可预报性来源.诊断发现,黄淮地区夏季降水与同期南亚高压、乌拉尔山附近阻塞高压、西风急流、西太平洋赤道上空200 hPa纬向风场呈明显正相关.分析BCC_CSM1.1m对夏季环流的回报结果发现,模式对200 hPa和500 hPa位势高度场、200 hPa纬向风场和850 hPa经向风场上影响黄淮地区夏季降水的部分关键区域有较好的模拟能力.利用模式预报技巧较高且对黄淮地区夏季降水的影响有物理含义的环流特征作为预测因子,对比预测因子进行独立性筛选前后分别建立的降尺度预测模型发现,黄淮地区夏季降水预测与实况的距平符号一致率由61％提高到72％.预测技巧来源分析发现,降尺度预测能力与BCC_CSM1.1m对影响黄淮地区夏季降水的3个关键因子乌拉尔山附近环流、南亚高压、西太平洋赤道上空西风强弱的预测技巧密切相关,尤其是模式对西太平洋赤道上空西风的模拟能力起到决定性作用.
  • 摘要：微波辐射计具有24 h不间断工作、时间分辨率高等优点,是常规探空的有益补充.天线罩上的积水、无线电干扰等会导致微波辐射计探测数据出现错误.因此,开展质量控制是合理使用微波辐射计探测资料的基础.该文利用上海宝山站历史探空资料和世博园站MP-3000A型地基微波辐射计温湿度数据,设计了极值、时间一致性、空间一致性检查等适用于微波辐射计探测资料的质量控制方法,针对2012年1月-2013年12月降水、有云(有云无降水)、晴空等不同天气条件下得到的微波辐射计探测资料分别开展质量控制,并对质量控制效果进行定量分析.结果表明:上述方法能有效查找温(湿)度超过极值、温(湿)度突变、温度层际变化大等各类疑误廓线,疑误廓线类型和频数与天气条件有关,其中降水天气的各类疑误廓线频数远远高于无降水天气(有云和晴空).去除疑误廓线后,与同期探空资料的相关系数增加,均方根误差减小.%Ground-based microwave radiometer profiler (MWR) can continuously retrieve thermodynamic profiles of the atmosphere on a minute time scale.These profiles are important supplements to radiosonde observations.Since the presence of liquid water on the profiling radiometer,radio frequency interference and other events can cause errors,quality control procedures that can detect data-quality problems are of critical importance.QC procedures are proposed for ground-based MWR-retrieved atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity using 10-year radiosonde soundings (January 2004 to December 2014) at Baoshan Station in Shanghai and observations from MP-3000A MWR (January 2012 to May 2014) at Shanghai Expo Station.QC procedures include three types of checks:Climatological test,time consistency test,and vertical consistency test.Climatological check aims to verify if the values of instantaneous data are within climatology range limits.Thresholds are set based on the seasonally varying statistics of 10-year radiosonde soundings.The time consistency check focus on the change rate of instantaneous data.If the difference between the current instantaneous value with the previous one exceeds a specific limit,the current value will be flagged as doubtful.The test is applied level by level,and the profile with suspected data at more than one level is flagged as doubtful.Vertical consistency checks operate on dTh and contain two tests:A test for the plausible value check of dTh and a test for the standard deviation of dTh (σ(dTh)).dTh (unti:℃ · (100 m)-1) is defined as the ratio of temperature difference to height difference at consecutive levels.The plausible value check of dTh is proposed to verify if there are spikes in a profile.The test for (σ(dTh)) is used to sort profiles with excessive level-to-level fluctuations throughout a sounding.Results show that QC methods can effectively identify various suspected observations,such as climatological outliers,temporal inconsistency and excessive vertical fluctuations in profiles.The frequency of suspected temperature and humidity profiles detected in rainy days is much higher than that in other weather conditions.The accuracy of MWR retrieved temperature and vapor density profiles is improved after applying these QC procedures.Correlation coefficients of both temperature and humidity observations between the MWR and radiosonde increase and corresponding root mean square error (RMSE) decrease after QC,especially those in rainy days.QC procedures for MWR-retrieved thermodynamic profiles are also proposed,through which various suspected profiles can be flagged.The accuracy of MWR retrievals is improved significantly after applying QC procedures.
  • 摘要：运用雷达反射率因子(Z)与降水强度(R)之间的关系定量估测降水,降水云体中的大气垂直运动(wa)不可忽视.PARSIVEL激光雨滴谱仪(简称PARSIVEL)在获取雨滴粒径分布的同时可以从测量的雨滴下降速度分布中提取ωa,用于分析PARSIVEL高度上的大气垂直运动对雷达Z估测降水强度影响.使用2014年5-6月华南季风降水观测试验期间广东阳江5次层状云、6次对流性降水过程中PARSIVEL数据分析大气垂直运动对定量估测降水影响,wa对层状云和对流云降水强度影响范围分别为-0.18～1.05 mm·h-1和-5.44～24.81 mm·h-1,相对影响值分别为-13.61％～13.99％,-38.59％～25.92％.静止大气条件下,雷达估算降水Z-R关系式中系数A,b引起的层状云和对流云降水估测偏差平均分别为10.9％和25.5％.真实大气中雷达估测降水的偏差平均情况是层状云降水由于wa的对消作用降低为9.2％,对流云降水则增加到51.2％.对流性降水中大气垂直运动对雷达估测降水的影响较大.%The radar quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE) is one of the main purpose of weather radar application.QPE products are applied very well due to wide space coverage,good precision and high spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation information.Main influencing factors cause differences between the QPE from radar and ground observation include the accuracy of the radar reflectivity,inconsistent of spatial and temporal between the radar and surface observation,and complex precipitation particle raindrop spectrum distribution.Air vertical motion effect in precipitation system and its temporal variation of random fluctuation is another important factor.Raindrop spectral distribution is considered with the development of radar QPE in recent years,and its falling speed can be achieved at the same time from PARSIVEL disdrometer.The air vertical motion acquired from data of PARSIVEL can be used to analyze its influence to the radar QPE.Using PARSIVEL data from the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCM-REX) during May and June 2014 at Yangjiang,Guangdong Province,several precipitation processes are analyzed,including 5 stratiform cloud (SC) precipitation events and 6 convective cloud (CC) precipitation events.The vertical air motion is retrieved and their influences on the QPE precision for both SC and CC are analyzed.The vertical air motion influencing value for 5 SC events are between-0.18 mm · h-1 and-1.05 mm · h-1,ranging from 13.61％ to 13.99％.The vertical air motion influencing value for the six CC events are between 5.44 mm · h-1 and 24.81 mm · h-1,ranging from-38.59％ to 25.92％.The influence on CC is greater than that on SC.PARSIVEL observation is applied to estimate the A and b coefficient in Z-R relation.The average deviation estimates SC under stationary atmospheric condition is 10.9％ and 9.2％ under non-stationary atmospheric condition.The vertical air motion effect partly offset by the uncertainty of the estimated precipitation Z-R relation.Average deviations of radar QPE are 25.5％,51.2％ under the stationary and non-stationary atmospheric conditions.After considering the raindrop spectrum distributions,the error of radar QPE is mainly from the vertical air motion.The deviation of QPE is related to data duration,shorter data usually lead to greater deviation.Simulation experiments are also carried out using PARSIVEL data to investigate this influence.

    应用气象学报的期刊信息

    • 曾用名：气象科学研究院院刊;气象科学研究院院刊(1986-1989);气象科学研究院院刊（1986-1989）
    • 创刊时间：1986
    • 地区：CN
    • 语言：中文
    • 热门主题：中国气象科学研究院;国家气象中心;国家卫星气象中心;国家气候中心;国家气象信息中心;中国气象局气象探测中心
    • 学科分类： 大气科学（气象学）;

    应用气象学报的获奖情况

    • • 1992年北京市新闻出版局、北京市科技期刊编辑学会“编辑质量奖、编辑规范奖、办刊条件奖”
    • • 1995年获中国气象科学研究院科技进步二等奖

    应用气象学报的收录情况

    • • 北大核心期刊（1992版）
    • • 北大核心期刊（1996版）
    • • 北大核心期刊（2000版）
    • • 北大核心期刊（2004版）
    • • 北大核心期刊（2008版）
    • • 北大核心期刊（2011版）
    • • 北大核心期刊（2014版）
    • • 北大核心期刊（2017版）
    • • 中国科学引文数据库（2011-2012）
    • • 中国科学引文数据库（2013-2014）
    • • 中国科学引文数据库（2015-2016）
    • • 中国科学引文数据库（2017-2018）
    • • 中国科学引文数据库（2019-2020）
    • • 日本科学技术振兴机构数据库
    • • 中国科技核心期刊

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