摘要：
为分析城镇化与耕地利用集约化的动态关系,促进新型城镇化与农业现代化协调发展,该文在构建城镇化与耕地利用集约化动态响应关系理论框架的基础上,基于传统农区安徽省1998—2014年相关数据,建立向量自回归(vector autoregression VAR)模型,检验两者之间的协整关系,并在此基础上运用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析城镇化与耕地利用集约化的互馈关系.结果表明,复种指数对城镇人口比例冲击的响应先为负向后为正向,贡献率为14.4%;对二三产业比例和土地城镇化则均产生负向响应,并呈先增加后减少的趋势,贡献率分别为10.4%、15.6%.化肥投入对城镇人口比例的冲击产生正向的响应,贡献率为12.1%;对二三产业比例有正向和负向响应,反应强度先增加后减少,解释水平为1.2%;对土地城镇化产生先增加后趋于平稳的负向响应,贡献率为22.3%.农业机械总动力对城镇人口比例的反应为正向的先增加后趋于平稳,贡献率为20.3%;对二三产业比例的负向响应的解释水平为2.4%;对土地城镇化的冲击呈现负向增加的响应,且贡献率高达66.3%.总体来看,城镇化水平的提高对耕地利用集约化有正向推动作用,但集约化需要适度发展,过快的城镇化不利于可持续集约化的实现;耕地利用集约化对城镇化的影响程度相对较低,说明耕地集约利用水平的提高仅可在一定程度上支持城镇化的发展.%Land use issue under the background of new-type urbanization has attracted serious attention in the land management discipline. The research is focusing on analyzing the dynamic relationship between the urbanization and the intensification use of cultivated land and promoting the coordinated development of new-type urbanization and agricultural modernization. Firstly, the research established a theoretic framework of dynamic response relationship between urbanization and cultivated land use intensification based on Anhui Province, which is a traditional agriculture area. The research built up a vector autoregression (VAR) model with the data from 1998 to 2014 in terms of social economic development and land use. And the co-integration relationship between urbanization and cultivated land use intensification is verified by taking impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, and finally the dynamic response relationship of urbanization and intensification of cultivated land use is elaborated. The results show that: First, the multiple cropping index has significant response to the impact of urban population proportion, in both positive and negative aspects, and the contribution rate is 14.4%. It has negative response to the secondary and tertiary industry proportion and the transformation of agricultural land to non-agricultural land, and the response effect has a volatility change in time series that increases in the early stage and declines later. The contribution rate is 10.4% and 15.6% accordingly. Second, the intensity of chemical fertilizer use has a positive response to the impact of urban population proportion and a contribution rate of 12.1%. However, the intensity of chemical fertilizer use has both positive and negative response to the secondary and tertiary industry proportion, and the intensity rises and then decreases and the construal level is 1.2%. Regarding the transformation of agricultural land to non-agricultural land, the response is negative and the response is going up in the early stage and then keeps stable and the contribution rate is 22.3%. Third, the total power of agricultural machinery shows a positive response to urban population proportion with a trend of increasing first and remaining stable later on. The contribution rate is 20.3%. However, the construal level is 2.4% with a negative response to the secondary and tertiary industry proportion. It has a negative impact on the transformation of agricultural land to non-agricultural land and the contribution rate is 66.3%. In general, the level of urbanization and the intensive use of cultivated land have very obvious inter-influence for each other. The outcome of this research shows the improvement of urbanization level actively promotes the intensive use of cultivated land to some extent. However, the inter-influence between them is not a simple linear relation, if the urbanization process was too fast; it would go against the concept of sustainable intensive use of cultivated land, and even lead to the extensive use of cultivated land. The outcome of the research shows that the intensive use of cultivated land has an impact on urbanization, whereas, the impact is relatively low, which indicates that the improvement of intensive use of cultivated land can facilitate the urbanization development to some extent.
