摘要：
值改革开放四十周年之际,作为我国经济发展的一条重要主线,对Yi(1991)提出的"中国经济改革过程中的货币化进程"问题进行再考察,较科学地测算我国改革开放初期的货币化率,并对现阶段仍存在的"M2消失之谜"进行更深入的研究,是非常有必要的.前者有利于总结我国过去货币化进程的经验教训,对正处在狭义货币化进程中的亚非拉"一带一路"沿线发展中国家具有较强的借鉴意义;后者则有助于理解我国当前的货币创造、货币政策以及资源"脱实向虚"的重要原因.如果学术界不能为我国货币化率测算的核心难题提供一个较准确清晰的答案,那么就很难给上述国家现阶段的货币化进程提供实质性建议.为此,文章初步解决了货币化率直接测算遗留的难题,并分析了"M2消失之谜"的形成原因及其对实体经济的影响.理论测算表明,我国的货币化率在1952年和1978年分别约为31.7%和42.0%,到1993年基本达到100%;货币化率的年均增速则可分为三个阶段:1952?1960年为4.7%?6.1%,1961?1977年为?0.7%?1.2%,1978?1992年为6.0%?6.7%.文章还发现,剔除狭义货币化因素后,我国M2的平均流速仍在逐年下降,说明现阶段我国经济的"货币流速下降之谜"和"高货币化之谜"并未消失,实证分析表明土地与住房的商品化和货币化可能是一个新的重要因素.经济危机后,我国过多的金融资源流向了房地产市场,这暗示土地与住房的过度货币化可能对实体经济造成了伤害.%The monetization process in China during the economic reform in the past 40 years can be roughly divided into two phases. The first half is from the beginning of the reform and opening-up in 1978 to the early 90s of last century,focusing on products marketization and commodities monetization. The second half is from the late 90s of last century until now,including the establishment and development of the stock market,as well as the commercialization and monetization of land and housing. On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening-up,reconsidering the issue of "monetization process" raised by Yi (1991),as an important main line that accompanies China's economic growth and development,is very mean-ingful. Actually,for us,there are still two important issues worth exploring. The first is to scientifically calcu-late the proportion of monetized economy at the first phase of this process. And the second is to conduct a more in-depth study on the "M2 missing puzzle" that exists at the current period. Obviously,the former can contribute to summarizing the experience and lessons of China's past monetization,and providing a strong practical reference for current narrow monetization process of the Asian,African and Latin American develop-ing countries along the "OBOR". The latter can help to understand China's current monetary creation,monet-ary policy,and the important reasons for leading those resources to "be shifted to virtual economy from real economy". However,if we cannot provide a more accurate and clear answer to the core question,namely how to measure and calculate China's monetization rate,then it will be very difficult for us to give any substantive advice on the monetization process in these developing countries. Therefore,for the former's remaining prob-lem,by considering those factors such as generalized trading technology,structural mutation and underground economy,this paper improves the monetization theory of Yi (1991) and creatively proposes a new theory and scientific procedure of directly calculating monetization rate,according to the "V-shaped" turning point of the time series about traditional velocity of M0. And for the latter's problem,this paper also analyzes the causes of the "M2 missing puzzle" and its impacts on the real economy.Our calculation shows that the proportions of monetized economy were 31.7% and 42.0% in 1952 and 1978,respectively. And this proportion eventually achieved 100% in 1993. In addition,the growth of this pro-portion experienced three stages:the average growth was 4.7?6.1% and 6.0?6.7% per year from 1952 to 1960 and from 1978 to 1992,and minus 0.7?1.2% from 1961 to 1977,respectively. Obviously,China's experience about this proportion of monetized economy with around 6.5% average annual growth can provide a strong practical reference for the current monetization process of those developing countries along the "OBOR". The two other contributions of this paper are as follows:firstly,it corrects the inaccuracy of velocity of money by traditional definition from 1952 to 1992,and provides the same period's data about the monetization rate and these real velocities of money defined at different levels,which is consistent with the documentary evidence;secondly,by utilizing the theory and method of this paper,it finds that there may be an undervaluation to use the M 2/GDP indicator to show the degree of monetization from 1952 to 1992 in traditional literature.Further-more,we also find that although the narrow monetization factor is controlled,the average velocity of M2 in China still presents a downward trend,indicating that the "velocity of money falling puzzle" and the "high monetization mystery" for current Chinese economy remains valid. And further evidence shows that commod-itization and monetization of land and housing may be one of the new important factors. After the crisis,ex-cessive financial resources in China have been running into the land and real estate markets. And it suggests that the over-monetization of the land and housing may have already harmed the real economy. In addition,a further international comparison shows that,the completion of the narrow monetization process means that there is a "V-shaped" inflection point of the time series about traditional velocity of M0 is a universal rule in both developed and developing countries. However,the "velocity of M0 falling puzzle" of those developed countries in this century has still not disappeared,suggesting that exploration,analysis and interpretation of those causes of its formation may be another possible direction in future related research.
