The Effect of Modeling Depth on Reliability Prediction for Systems Subject to a Phased Mission Profile.

摘要

The term 'phased mission profile' describes a situation in which the factors that influence the longevity of a system change in the course of a sequence of distinct, successive periods of time which are the mission 'phases'. Phased mission profiles tend to be associated with more general phased missions, in which there can also be changes in the system configuration that is relevant to mission success, but many systems with a stable configuration are exposed to phased mission profiles. Predictions of the probability of mission success for a system typically result from combining predicted probabilities of mission success for its components according to logic model for the system's configuration. The author investigated the effect that the depth to which the logic model is carried has on predictions, when the predictions at the component level are made using a 'standard' methodology. (Author)