基于多阶段任务系统的成功率建模与仿真

摘要

The analyses to the efficiency of materiel support system (MSS) can be realized by evaluating to the mission completion success probability (MCSP) of materiel system in different mission profiles. For the reason of MCSP being affected by so many factors, and the relationship among them being difficult to express, we decide to implement that using the system simulation. MCSP sinmulation model is estabilished by MCSP definition, an integrated simulation schematic model and MCSP simulation flow are set up based on the parameters of equipment and regulation by appling the theory of Mento-Carlo sampling, event simulation, mathematical statistics. By a mission scenario of training mission, the validity and application of the schematic model were demlonstrated. The results suggest that the evalution of MCSP can be used as a reference to evaluate support ability of MSS for using and managing departments.%对装备系统在不同任务剖面下的成功率的评估,可以反映装备保障系统的整体效能.由于影响任务成功率的因素较多,关系复杂,目前还没有相应的数学公式进行解析.针对上述问题,采取仿真统计的方法来实现对装备系统任务成功概率的评估.通过任务成功率定义建立任务成功率仿真模型,应用离散事件仿真、蒙特卡罗抽样、数理统计模型等理论建立了一种基于设备参数和使用规则参数的多阶段任务综合仿真原理模型和任务成功率仿真流程.最后将原理模型应用于某舰艇某次训练任务想定,从而说明模型的有效性和实用性,结果表明对任务成功率的仿真评估可以作为使用和管理部门评估保障系统保障能力的依据.