基于多阶段贝叶斯网络的反导系统任务可靠性建模

摘要

In order to evaluate mission reliability of missile defense system (MDS), the definition of mission reliability for MDS is given. The phase-Bayesian networks (phase-BN) reliability model is built. Then, the phase-BN composes to phased mission system Bayesian networks (PMS-BN) and calculation methods are discussed. The solution accuracy and calculation complexity are analyzed by comparing the solution with Markov model and Fault Tree.%针对反导系统的可靠性评估问题,给出了反导系统任务可靠性的定义,采用任务剖面描述任务时序逻辑关系,建立了各阶段任务的贝叶斯网络(phase-Bayesian networks,phase-BN)任务可靠性模型,并将其组合为多阶段任务系统贝叶斯网络(phased mission system Bayesian networks,PMS-BN)模型,讨论了PMS-BN模型的求解方法.最后通过算例分析,求得反导系统的可靠性,并与Markov以及故障树模型进行比较,分析了结果的精度与计算复杂度.