多阶段任务多态系统可靠性建模与仿真

摘要

PMS is a broad applied kind of complex system. Considering the PMS with multi-mode failures, the dependencies across phases and failure modes make the reliability analysis more complex.Analyzing the solutions of PMS with multi-mode failures, a method based on Monte Carlo is proposed,and an empirical principle for generating random numbers is presented. The method utilizes the idea of statistical sampling to deal with such dependencies, then based on the model family, analyzes the reliability. The proposed method is verified on two cases study of literature, and the result has proved that the simulation model has relatively practicability.%多阶段任务系统(PMS)是一类应用广泛的复杂系统.考虑设备多模式失效的PMS,由于阶段依赖性和失效模式依赖性,增加可靠性分析的复杂性.在分析了目前解决多阶段任务多态系统方法的基础上,提出了基于Monte Carlo的仿真求解方法及其随机数产生的经验原则,该方法利用抽样统计的思想来处理多阶段任务多态系统中的阶段依赖和模式依赖关系,实现了系统可靠性分析.通过实例对该方法进行了验证,仿真结果与解析方法所得结果吻合良好,证明了模型的有效性和可行性.