Airspace Encounter Models for Estimating Collision Risk

摘要

Airspace encounter models, providing a statistical representation of geometries and aircraft behavior during anclose encounter, are required to estimate the safety and robustness of collision avoidance systems. Prior encounternmodels, developed to certify the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, have been limited in their ability toncapture important characteristics of encounters as revealed by recorded surveillance data, do not capture the currentnmix of aircraft types or noncooperative aircraft, and do not represent more recent airspace procedures. This paperndescribes a methodology for encounter model construction based on a Bayesian statistical framework connected tonan extensive set of national radar data. In addition, this paper provides examples of using several such high-fidelitynmodels to evaluate the safety of collision avoidance systems for manned and unmanned aircraft.