Modeling dynamics of an influenza pandemic with heterogeneous coping behaviors: case study of a 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Arizona

摘要

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of standard compartment models in modeling the dynamics of an influenza pandemic. Standard compartment models, which are commonly used in influenza simulations, make unrealistic assumptions about human behavioral responses during a pandemic outbreak. Existing simulation models with public avoidance also make a rigid assumption regarding the human behavioral response to influenza. This paper incorporates realistic assumptions regarding individuals' avoidance behaviors in a standard compartment model. Both the standard and modified models are parameterized, implemented, and compared in the research context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. The modified model with heterogeneous coping behaviors forecasts influenza spread dynamics better than the standard model when evaluated against the empirical data, especially for the beginning of the 2009-2010 normal influenza season starting in October 2009 (i.e., the beginning of the second wave of 2009 H1N1). We end the paper with a discussion of the use of simulation models in efforts to help communities effectively prepare for and respond to influenza pandemics.