摘要:目的 探讨北京市2009年甲型H1N1流感发病时空分布特征,为传染病预防控制提供理论依据.方法 利用SaTScan8.0软件进行时空扫描分析,通过ArcGIS8.3软件呈现甲型H1N1流感时空聚集区域.结果 按照7天、14天、30天,50%的时间周期进行单纯时间扫描分析,结果显示甲型H1N1流感发病在9月4日-12月17日,10月16日至22日,10月16日至29日,10月9日-11月5日呈现聚集.单纯空间扫描发现以丰台区卢沟桥地区为中心,半径为4.59千米的区域,甲型H1N1流感发病异常增多,为最可能聚集区域,实际发生甲型H1N1流感1474例,理论病例数为681.43例,LLY值为681.43,RR=1.78,P<0.001,差异有统计学意义.在时空扫描分析上,不同时间周期均扫描到一个最可能聚集区域,位于北京城区西南,在以15.50~22.65千米为半径的区域内,主要发生在10月16日至11月5日之间,另外还发现次要聚集区域位于北京市东北郊区,以38.30 ~67.31千米为半径范围内的区域,发病时间主要为10月9日至22日.结论 北京市甲型H1N1流感发病不是随机分布的,存在明显时间、空间和时空聚集性.时空扫描分析方法可以非常好地应用于北京市甲型H1N1流感高发重点区域分析,为今后传染病预防控制,提供了参考依据.%Objective To examine the temporal and spatial distrbution of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 and to provide evidence for disease prevention and control.Methods SaTScan8.0 software was used to conduct space-time scan statistic,and influenza A (H1N1) 2009 clusters were showed by ArcGIS8.3 software.Results From September 4 to December 17,October 16 to October 22,October 16 to October 29,October 9 to November 5,the cluster was showed by Temporal scan statistic with different time period of 7 days,14 days,30 days,50%.Influenza A ( H1N1 ) 2009 had high incidence.According the Marco Polo Bridge in Fengtai district for the center,a radius of 4.59 kilometer area was considered as the most likely cluster.The incidence of influenza A ( H1N1 ) 2009 increased abnormally,and 1474 cases of influenza A( H1N1 ),expected cases is 681.43,RR =1.78,P <0.001 with statistical significance.The most likely cluster was identified with different time periods by space-time scan statistic.It located in the southwest of Beijing city in a radius of 15.50-22.65 kilometer area from the October 16 to November 5.Furthermore,Secondary clusters were found in the northeast of Beijing,in a radius of 38.30-67.31 kilometer area,from October 9 to October 22.Conclusions The distribution of Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Beijing is not random,there are significant clusters in time and space.Space-time scan statistic is fit to analyze the clusters of influenza A ( H1N1 ) 2009 in Beijing.Useful information can be provided for future disease prevention and control.