基于累积前景理论的铁路应急预案评估模型研究

摘要

为了充分体现决策过程中决策数据的科学性以及决策者的心理行为特征对决策结果的影响,提出基于改进层次分析法与累积前景理论相结合的铁路应急预案评估模型.首先,建立铁路应急环境下的预案评估综合指标体系;其次,基于均衡化的指标体系运用G1法确定各指标权重;最后,建立基于累积前景理论的铁路应急预案评估的科学模型.案例表明,应用该方法对铁路应急预案进行评估是科学有效且可行的.%To investigate the influences of psychological characteristics in decision making process, this paper proposes a railway emergency evaluation model based on the theory of analytic hierarchical process and cumulative prospect. First, the model sets up a comprehensive indexing system to evaluate the railway emergency plans. Second, it determines the weights of indices by the G1 method by the use of a balanced indexing method. Finally, it establishes a new railway emergency evaluation model by applying the cumulative prospect theory. A case study shows that the proposed method is applicable for the effective evaluation of railway emergency plans.