The development of an oil spill contingency planning evaluation model.

摘要

The initial response to an oil spill can in itself determine the effectiveness and success of the entire response effort. The development of a contingency plan prepares an organization to quickly mobilize, organize, and control the response.; Most organizations utilize contingency plans to prepare for emergencies. In the oil industry, for example, contingency planning is called for by government regulations contained in the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90). However, it has been commonly observed that during an actual response there is inevitably a shift away from the organizational forms and actions delineated in the established contingency plan. This deviation from stated procedures is often so dramatic that the original plan becomes of limited use.; The purpose of this research is twofold: (1) to develop a decision-making model that can be used to evaluate contingency plans; and (2) to identify, categorize, and synthesize the critical factors that lead to the shift from the original contingency plan during an actual response.; Using the results of the pilot test elements of the oil spill response process were identified and categorized a hierarchical structure. The model was tested by the response to the Exxon Valdez oil spill as a case study and the four main contingency plans that were in effect. These plans were measured against a hypothetical plan "Adequate plan" which was predefined.; The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) represented an ideal tool for this purpose. Expert Choice software was used to build a hierarchy that employed the pairwise comparison technique. The inputs of field experts were used to calculate and establish priorities and weights of different factors affecting the success of an actual contingency plan.; Findings included ranking of the contingency plans that were activated during the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Furthermore, the factors influencing the success of these plans were synthesized, and their relative importance to each of the plans were obtained.