基于贝叶斯网络的供应链风险模糊综合评判

摘要

The existing common methods of analyzing risks cannot evaluate the supply chain risks for sure,because the risks leading to the failure of supply chain are fuzzy and complex.This article puts forward a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of supply chain risks based on Bayesian networks.Taking the supply chain risks of an enterprise as an example,we calculated the logarithmic probability P of risky affairs through linear deduction of Bayesian networks and then worked out the main risky af-fairs and their ranks by the way of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.This research provides a reference for evaluating supply chain risks and other parallel ones,which makes it convenient for enterprises to take provisions to lower risks and reduce los-ses.%由于导致供应链失效的风险因素具有模糊性、复杂性，增加了供应链风险分析难度，一般的风险分析方法不能很好地评判供应链风险。文章提出了基于贝叶斯网络的供应链风险模糊综合评判方法，以某企业供应链风险为例，通过构建供应链失效风险的贝叶斯网络对风险事件发生概率进行线性推理，再采用模糊综合评判方法求出供应链风险中主要风险事件及总风险事件的风险等级，为该企业及早调控供应链提供依据。本评判方法可为企业供应链风险及其他类似风险的预防和控制提供参考依据。