Research on the Probability of Supply Chain Risk Transmission Based on Bayesian Network

摘要

The research on supply chain risk transmission is helpful to improve the level of supply chain management. The risk transmission process of supply chain has been summarized and the nodes of supply chain that can affect the risk transmission have been pointed out. In this paper, theBayesian network method is employed to conduct the mathematical description for transmission probability of supply chain risk. At the same time, the topology structure of supply chain risk transmission has been constructed. Through the calculation, the risk probability after transmission canbe obtained. The research results show that the risk probability has been changed in the transmission process of supply chain. The analysis on the probability of supply chain risk transmission based on Bayesian network is a good theoretical method that can provide a strong support for riskmanagement of supply chain.