首页> 中文期刊> 《复杂系统与复杂性科学》 >牛熊市视角下股票关联网络动态拓扑结构研究——以上证50指数为例

牛熊市视角下股票关联网络动态拓扑结构研究——以上证50指数为例

     

摘要

Daily data collected from Shanghai 50 Index constituent stocks from January 4, 2005 to December 31, 2008 is divided into three stages: bear I, bull and bear II.We study dynamic topology of stock correlation networks in each stage by using the minimal spannin tree (MST), hierarchical tree (HT) and main network property measures.The results show that: Industrial clustering exists and becomes more and more obvious in stock market;Manufacturing industry turns into the absolute center in bull market, which lasts until bear II market;Internal stocks of finance & insurance industry and steelmaking industry always maintain a high correlation, and the stocks of parent company and subsidiary and the stocks of the cross holdings companies are also close to each other;In addition, the main network property measures reveal that the structure of the stock market's correlation network is closer but worse in bull market than in bear markets.%以2005-01-04至2008-12-31上证50指数成分股数据为样本,将其划分为熊市I、牛市和熊市II等3个阶段,运用最小生成树、分层结构树以及主要拓扑指标研究股票市场处于不同阶段下的关联网络动态拓扑结构.实证结果表明:股票市场间存在行业聚集效应,并且这种效应随着时间的推移越来越显著;在股票市场关联网络拓扑结构中,制造业在牛市时处于绝对的中心地位,并会持续到熊市;金融保险业和制造业中的钢铁制造业的内部股票始终保持着很高的关联度,一些子母公司和交叉控股的股票间也关系密切.此外,主要关联网络指标显示,股票市场所形成的关联网络结构在牛市时更紧密,但是牛市的市场结构要比熊市差.

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