首页> 外文会议>International conference on probabilistic safety assessment and management;PSAM4 >Priorities in Risk Management: human and Organizational Factors as External Events and a Maritime Illustration
【24h】

Priorities in Risk Management: human and Organizational Factors as External Events and a Maritime Illustration

机译:风险管理中的优先事项:作为外部事件的人为因素和组织因素以及海事插图

获取原文

摘要

One approach to including human errors in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has sometimes been to simply assume a priori that they account for an arbitrary proportion of the failure risk (e.g., 80percent) and to further assess the effects of these errors on the probabilities and the consequences of the various failure modes. In this paper, it is shown that their estimated contribution to the risk of an accident can depend both on the depth of the analysis and on the system itself. Therefore the "80percent rule" is misleading and can yield wrong priorities among safety maasures. Instead, a systematic analysis can be undertaken to include these factors in a PRA for a specific system. The model permits assessing a wide spectrum of risk reduction options and avoiding double-counting. It is described and illustrated here by the case of the grounding of ships due to loss of propulsin.
机译:将人为错误包括在概率风险评估(PRA)中的一种方法有时是简单地先验地假设它们占故障风险的任意比例(例如80%),并进一步评估这些错误对概率和风险的影响。各种故障模式的后果。本文表明,它们对事故风险的估计贡献可能取决于分析深度和系统本身。因此,“ 80%规则”具有误导性,并且可能在安全措施中产生错误的优先级。而是可以进行系统分析,以将这些因素包括在特定系统的PRA中。该模型允许评估各种减少风险的选择,并避免重复计算。这里由于推进素的损失而停泊船舶的情况进行了描述和说明。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号