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Priorities in Risk Management: human and Organizational Factors as External Events and a Maritime Illustration

机译:风险管理的优先事项:人类和组织因素作为外部事件和海事插图

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One approach to including human errors in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has sometimes been to simply assume a priori that they account for an arbitrary proportion of the failure risk (e.g., 80percent) and to further assess the effects of these errors on the probabilities and the consequences of the various failure modes. In this paper, it is shown that their estimated contribution to the risk of an accident can depend both on the depth of the analysis and on the system itself. Therefore the "80percent rule" is misleading and can yield wrong priorities among safety maasures. Instead, a systematic analysis can be undertaken to include these factors in a PRA for a specific system. The model permits assessing a wide spectrum of risk reduction options and avoiding double-counting. It is described and illustrated here by the case of the grounding of ships due to loss of propulsin.
机译:概率风险评估(PRA)中包括人为错误(PRA)的方法有时候是为了实际上假设他们占故障风险(例如,80percent)的任意比例,并进一步评估这些误差对概率的影响各种故障模式的后果。在本文中,表明它们对事故风险的估计贡献可以取决于分析的深度和系统本身。因此,“80平方规则”是误导性的,可以在安全茂地区产生错误的优先事项。相反,可以进行系统分析,以包括特定系统的PRA中的这些因素。该模型允许评估广泛的风险减少选项,避免双重计数。这里被描述和说明的是由于船舶的损失而引起的船舶的接地。

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