Memory-Based Modeling of Seasonality for Prediction of Climatic Time Series

摘要

The paper describes a method for predicting climatic time series that consist of significant annual and diurnal seasonal components and a short-term stochastic component. A memory-based method for modeling of the non-linear seasonal components is proposed that allows the application of simpler linear models for predicting short-term deviations from seasonal averages. The proposed method results in significant reduction of prediction error when predicting time series of ambient air temperature from multiple locations. Moreover, combining the statistical predictor with meteorological forecasts using linear regression or Kalman filtering further reduces prediction error to typically between 1℃ over a prediction horizon of one hour and 2.5℃ over 24 hours.