摘要：
During and after the Twelfth Five Year period, the reform of coal resource tax is the key to the reform of all resource taxes. Since the annual coal consumption is close to 70% of all resources consumed domestically, the reform must be conducted in cautious but steady manner. In the perspective of tax shifting, this paper analyzes the objectives of the coal resource tax reform and points out the dilemma that the reform faces. Utilizing the time series data from 1993 to 2010, this paper carries on the regression analysis between coal demand and related items. The paper selects GDP index, coal price index, oil price index, electricity output index as explanatory variables, and selects coal demand index as explained variable. The paper also analyzes the change of coal external trade from 1993 to 2010 and the change of market concentration of coal industry in the same period. The result shows that in the conditions of unbalanced coal supply and demand, shortage of substitute for coal, and increasing concentration of the coal market, if the reform of the coal resource tax is simply implemented by means of raising taxes, tax burden is apt to shift to downstream customers. In such a case, the objectives are hard to be realized. As a conclusion, this paper suggests enhancing the effectiveness of the coal resource tax reform through the combination of various policies instead of raising tax only. The policies include to intervene coal price, to lead rational competition in coal industry and to encourage coal mining enterprises to improve technology.%在“十二五”以及之后的一段时期,煤炭资源税改革将是资源税改革中的重点内容.煤炭消费占我国能源消费的比重接近70％,因此煤炭资源税改革的推行要十分慎重.本文以煤炭资源税改革目标为切入点,基于税负转嫁的视角分析了我国煤炭资源税改革目标实现的困境.本文利用1993年至2010年的时间序列数据,选取GDP指数、煤炭价格指数、石油价格指数、火电产量指数为解释变量,煤炭需求量为被解释变量进行了回归分析.本文还分析了同一期间煤炭对外贸易变化情况和煤炭市场集中度变化情况.研究结果表明,单纯的以提高税负为手段的煤炭资源税改革在煤炭供需失衡、煤炭替代品缺乏以及煤炭产业市场集中度不断提高的情况下,税负极易向下游转嫁,从而导致税改目标难以实现.建议通过多种政策的引导和配套来有效增强煤炭资源税改革的政策效力,包括:对煤炭价格进行必要的干预,引导煤炭行业进行合理竞争、鼓励开采企业实现技术进步.
