Crack's Decline: Some Surprises Across U.S. Cities. Research in Brief

摘要

An analysis of 1987-1996 data on booked arrestees' recent use of cocaine/crack, as detected by urinalysis conducted through the National Institute of Justice's Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) program in 24 cities nationwide. The data confirm the researchers' model of a drug epidemic, composed of four distinct phases: incubation, expansion, plateau, and decline. Standard epidemiological models and observation of prior drug epidemics suggest that the crack epidemic, which began in the 1980s, has been following this natural course from incubation to decline. DUF data, which documented the rates of drug use for both juvenile and adult arrestees over the study period, offer additional insight on age, period, and cohort effects on cocaine/crack use. Local factors can affect the development and course of the crack epidemic, demonstrated by variations across cities in the same region. Being able to pinpoint the stage of the epidemic in particular cities enables local criminal justice and health officials to develop better strategies and deploy their resources more effectively to respond to the epidemic.