Urban blight is a significant problem in metropolitan areas in the United States. Governmental bodies from local governments to federal agencies have spent billions of dollars in the past decade in an attempt to counteract the effects and progression of blight. This paper uses national, state, county and local data to better understand the dichotomous impact of urban decline on metropolitan areas. A durable housing model, where growing and declining cities have different dynamics, is used to identify the correlation with local housing vacancies. Tract level data are used to analyze the demographic changes occurring in metropolitan areas. A survey of local programs provides an in-depth look into the methods being employed by local governments to combat blight. The proportion of vacancies is related to population change for both growing and declining cities. Both fixed effect methodology and the use of exogenous shocks find that changes in population in declining cities are associated with larger vacancy rates compared to growing cities. Using non-parametric methods, some evidence is found of a natural vacancy rate in the housing market of 7%. Since declining areas have a higher responsiveness to population changes, programs need to account for these differences. The local analysis finds a ring of fire surrounding the central business district such that fire damaged buildings are more concentrated in a ring around the CBD. A variety of demographic and policy relevant variables are analyzed to better understand the dynamics of population change. The disproportionate impact on declining metropolitan areas impacts local budgets, government policies and quality of life for residents.
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