Probability of Attaining a Given Flight Path as a Function of the Turn Radius, Turn Initiation Error, and Heading Change

摘要

The problem of changing aircraft heading to coincide with a particular ground track is considered. A probability function is derived which gives the probability of arriving with¬in a corridor of specified width to either side of the desired flight path. This probability function is assumed to be a function only of the error in ascertaining the correct point at which to initiate the turn, the error in attaining a specified radius of curvature and the change in heading. Two forms of the probability function are obtained and an illustrative example for a particular case is worked out.