Forecasting Complex Political and Military Events: The Application of Expected Utility to Crisis Situations

摘要

This paper introduces the C2 community to a new technology based process that permits the analyzing and forecasting of complex political and military issues, with particularly reference to crisis decision making. Traditional crisis decision making exercises and simulations constrain role playing and the inability to utilize current information effectively. Exercises usually contain dimensions of artificiality or designs based on future scenarios. There is a need to create 'real time' crisis decision-making environments where players can apply their current information base and manipulate hundreds of variables to achieve optimum outcomes. Our approach uses real world events and then forecasts their likely outcome allowing players to engage in real time policy manipulation. In addition, we provide a means to alter policy actions to maximize national security gains. We demonstrate this analytical technology by offering the results of an experiment conducted during February/March 2000 at the National War College using the Chechnya crisis as a model.