Network Centric Operations - Effects Based Operations Marriage: Can It Enable Prediction of 'Higher Order' Effects on the Will of the Adversary.

摘要

Network Centric Operations is touted as enabling Effects Based Operations targeted at the 'will and belief systems' of the adversary. This assertion is explored. Specifically, for Effects-Based Operations against the will and belief systems to be enabled, the operational commander needs to know what makes an adversary give up and needs to be able to plan and assess the associated indicators of the desired operational effect. Assessment implies measurement or sensing. The will and belief systems are psychological factors that have defied measurement or assessment. Historical analysis is conducted for three losing side's reactions to identify any patterns that may be used as measures or as indicators that desired effects have been achieved. Effects-Based Operations is a good theoretical approach to targeting and operational planning. It answers the question, Why are we taking this action. However, since the will and belief systems of the adversary are psychological factors, this paper shows that planning for higher order effects remains problematic. Thus, the operational commander will still have to rely on his/her gut fuel and occasional fleeting indicators to discern higher order effects on the will of the adversary vice plan and confirm effects via the promised in-depth knowledge provided by the omnipresent sensor grid in Network Centric Operations.