Measuring the Immeasurable: Applying Hierarchical Holographic Modeling to Developing Measures of Effectiveness for Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations

摘要

One of the most difficult questions the Combatant Commander must answer while executing Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) operations is, How do we know if our efforts are succeeding. Indeed, DoD Directive 3000.05, Military Support for Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations specifically tasks the Combatant Commanders to develop measures of effectiveness (MOEs) that evaluate the progress in achieving the goals set forth in the SSTR directive. Yet, given little guidance from senior civilian policy makers and the immense uncertainty surrounding SSTR operations, Combatant Commanders typically rely upon traditional military focused MOEs, which are easily quantifiable and militarily comprehensible. However, these traditional military MOEs fail to accurately assess the progress in SSTR operations because they attempt to answer a fundamentally systemic problem through a systematic approach. Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) is a risk-based methodology that decomposes a large-scale system into a hierarchy of subsystems and shows a multidimensional, holistic view of the system (Dombroski et al. 2002). This paper will demonstrate how HHM can be applied by the Combatant Commander's staff to develop a more accurate assessment of how well our efforts in SSTR operations are succeeding.