Statistical Methods for Solar Flare Probability Forecasting

摘要

The Space Environment Services Center (SESC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides probability forecasts of regional solar flare disturbances. This report describes a statistical method useful to obtain 24 hour solar flare forecasts which, historically, have been subjectively formulated. In Section 1 of this report flare classifications of the SESC and the particular probability forecasts to be considered are defined. In Section 2 we describe the solar flare data base and outline general principles for effective data management. Three statistical techniques for solar flare probability forecasting are discussed in Section 3, viz, discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and multiple linearregression. We also review two scoring measures and suggest the logistic regression approach for obtaining 24 hour forecasts. In Section 4 a heuristic procedure is used to select nine basic predictors from the many available explanatory variables. Using these nine variables logistic regression is demonstrated by example in Section 5. We conclude in Section 6 with band broad suggestions regarding continued development of objective methods for solar flare probability forecasting. (Author)