Optimized Certainty Equivalents for Decisions Under Uncertainty

摘要

A new approach is proposed for some models of decision-making under uncertainty, using optimized certainty-equivalents induced by expected-utility. Applications to production, investment and inventory models demonstrate the advantages of the new approach. Expected utility theory is 'the major paradigm in decision making.... It has been used prescriptively in management science (especially decision analysis), predictively in finance and economics, descriptively by psychologists... The expected utility (EU) model has consequently been the focus of much theoretical and empirical research.... In spite of its power, elegance and success, considerable criticism has been directed at the EU theory, specially when used descriptively to model the decision processes underlying risky choice. In this context, evidence refuting the validity of the EU model axioms is relevant.