Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China's Power Sector for Low-Carbon Economy

摘要

The largest percentage of China's total coal consumption is used for coal-fired power generation, which has resulted in the power sector becoming China's largest carbon emissions emitter. Most of the previous studies concerning the driving factors of carbon emissions changes lacked considerations of different socioeconomic factors. This study examines the impacts of eight factors from different aspects on carbon emissions within power sector from 1981 to 2013 by using the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model; in addition, the regression coefficients are effectively determined by a partial least squares regression (PLS) method. The empirical results show that (1) the degree of influence of various factors from strong to weak is urbanization level (UL) > technology level (T-1) > population (P) > GDP per capita (A) > line loss (T-2) > power generation structure (T-3) > energy intensity (T-4) > industry structure (IS); (2) economic activity is no longer the most important contributing factor; the strong correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth is weakening; and (3) the coal consumption rate of power generation had the most obvious inhibitory effect, indicating that technological progress is still a vital means of achieving emissions reductions.