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Driving Factor Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China’s Power Sector for Low-Carbon Economy

机译:低碳经济电力部门碳排放的驱动因素分析

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摘要

The largest percentage of China’s total coal consumption is used for coal-fired power generation, which has resulted in the power sector becoming China’s largest carbon emissions emitter. Most of the previous studies concerning the driving factors of carbon emissions changes lacked considerations of different socioeconomic factors. This study examines the impacts of eight factors from different aspects on carbon emissions within power sector from 1981 to 2013 by using the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model; in addition, the regression coefficients are effectively determined by a partial least squares regression (PLS) method. The empirical results show that (1) the degree of influence of various factors from strong to weak is urbanization level (UL) > technology level (T1) > population (P) > GDP per capita (A) > line loss (T2) > power generation structure (T3) > energy intensity (T4) > industry structure (IS); (2) economic activity is no longer the most important contributing factor; the strong correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth is weakening; and (3) the coal consumption rate of power generation had the most obvious inhibitory effect, indicating that technological progress is still a vital means of achieving emissions reductions.
机译:中国的煤炭消费总量的比例最大的是用于燃煤发电,这导致电力行业成为中国最大的碳排放量排放国。最令人关注的碳排放量变化的驱动因素,在前人研究的缺乏的不同社会经济因素的考虑。本研究通过对人口,富裕程度和技术(STIRPAT)模型扩展的随机影响回归检验了从电力行业内的碳排放量不同方面1981年至2013年八个因素的影响;此外,回归系数被有效地由偏最小二乘回归法(PLS)方法确定。实证结果表明,(1)的各种因素影响从强到弱的程度是城市化水平(UL)>技术水平(T1)>人口(P)>人均GDP(A)>线损耗(T2)>发电结构(T3)>能量强度(T4)>业结构(IS); (2)经济活动已不再是最重要因素;电力消费与经济增长之间的强相关性减弱;并网发电(3)煤炭消费率具有最明显的抑制作用,这表明技术进步仍然是实现减排的重要手段。

著录项

  • 作者

    Dan Yan; Yalin Lei; Li Li;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2017
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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