Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling of Data Singular Spectrum Decomposition and Traffic Flow Prediction

摘要

Dynamic traffic flow prediction is one of the important topics in traffic engineering and intelligent transportation systems. The traffic flow has stochastic nature and nonlinear dynamics which make accurate prediction of traffic flow a challenging process. In most existing methods, the nonlinear and stochastic qualities of traffic flow have not been taken into consideration simultaneously and these methods do not possess satisfactory accuracy either. In this paper, in order to reduce the prediction error based on traffic flow characteristics, we applied two different methods. At first, we applied a locally linear neuro-fuzzy method using local linear model tree learning algorithm for nonlinear identification of traffic flow. Then, to eliminate the noisy components and also to increase the prediction accuracy, we proposed a method, which is the combination of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and locally linear neuro-fuzzy model (LLNF). In this method, firstly, the principal components of the traffic flow time series were extracted, several noisy and unimportant components were thrown out and then every remained important component was modeled by using a LLNF network, the trained networks were utilized for one-step-ahead prediction, and finally the predicted patterns were combined to construct the general prediction. Moreover, we compared the results of these two methods with each other and also with those of several other intelligent methods such as multi-layer perceptron, radial-basis function, network and adaptive network fuzzy inference system. The simulation results revealed that the proposed SSA + LLNF approach for traffic flow prediction had promising and superior performance.