上呼吸道感染的气象条件分析及预报

摘要

The data of 65083 cases of upper respiratory tract infection from January 2010 to December 2015 in the No.1 people's Hospital of Jining,Shandong and the data of the meteorological data of the same period are analyzed,and the relationship between upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors is studied.According to the actual number of upper respiratory infections,the full-year is divided into 6 time periods.The meteorological factors with high correlation with upper respiratory tract infection are different in various periods.The stepwise regression analysis method is used to establish the grades forecast equation of upper respiratory tract infection in 6 time periods,and the criteria for classification of forecast grades are determined.The forecast equation is verified with the back substitution method,and the prediction results show that the forecast equation is more accurate for the number of patients with upper respiratory tract infection.%通过对2010年1月至2015年12月济宁市第一人民医院65083例上呼吸道感染病例和同期气象资料进行分析,研究上呼吸道感染与气象因素的关系.按实际上呼吸道感染发病数量将全年分为6个时段,每一时段内与上呼吸道感染发病人数相关性高的气象因素不同.应用逐步回归分析法基于6个时段分别建立了对上呼吸道感染发病的等级预报方程,确定了预报等级划分标准.应用预报方程进行等级回代验证,预报结果显示其对上呼吸道感染发病人数具有较强的预报能力.