矿业工程项目施工工期可靠性预测研究

摘要

工期是矿业工程项目管理的三大目标之一,本文引入施工工期可靠性这一指标衡量矿业工程项目工期管理水平.基于蒙特卡洛模拟法与计划评审技术相结合提出了工程项目施工工期可靠性的预测模型.与传统计划评审技术方法相比,用蒙特卡洛模拟法求解的优点在于通过模拟构造多个方案,弥补了传统计划评审技术的假设条件造成的误差,提高了计算精度,更加符合实际工程的情况;最后以一工程实例进行了应用.%Time is one of the three objectives for mining project, and construction time reliability as a appraisal index for time is introduced to measure time management level of mining project. Based on the method combined of Monte Carlo simulation and PERT, the forecasting model of construction time reliability is built. Compared with traditional PERT, the advantage of Monte Carlo simulation is to compensate the error caused by assumptions of PERT and to improve calculation accuracy. Finally, a case is chosen as the application of such theory and method.