数乘变换的GM(1,1)模型在工程项目施工工期预测中的应用

摘要

为了准确地确定某一工序的工期,结合施工企业的统计资料,运用灰色理论,进行工期预测.通过分析传统GM模型的病态性,提出适用于实际情况的数乘变换的累积法GM(1,1)模型,并通过工程实际应用,验证了数乘变换的GM(1,1)模型的优良性.该方法在工期预测中的应用得以推广,为科学、.合理地编制进度计划提供了依据.%In order to get construction period prediction more accurately, a theory of prediction based on the Grey Theory has been put forward, which is combined with the business statistics of construction enterprises. The accumulation method of GM model (1,1) based on multiple transformation by the analysis of the traditional ill-conditioned GM model, is actual conditions, the goodness of which can be proved in practical project. The application and dissemination of the method can provide the scientific basis for making schedules.