基于机会成本的出行者行为决策研究

摘要

以后悔理论为基础，引入机会成本，研究了出行者面临突发交通事故时的行为决策过程。 VMS以一定的时间间隔向出行者发布事故延误时间，并预测每条路径的出行时间；同时，出行者根据自身的选择，计算每条路径的机会成本。结合每条路径的预测出行时间和机会成本，出行者做出最终的选择。用一个算例证明了机会成本对出行者路径选择结果的重要影响，并与效用理论进行了对比，出行者行为决策存在较大的区别。%Based on Regret Theory ,introducing opportunity cost ,behavior decision of travelers faced with unexpected accidents has been studied .The VMS publish the traffic incident delay at certain in‐tervals .Travelers forecast travel time of each route .At the same time ,each traveler determined choice of other travelers according to their ow n choice ,and decided the opportunity cost of each route . Combining the forecasting travel time and opportunity cost ,travelers made the final choice .An exam‐ple has been studied to prove the significant impact of opportunity cost to travelers ’ route choice ,and Utility Theory has been contrasted with Regret Theory ,the result shows finding that there is obvious difference for travelers’ behavior decision .