基于实测数据的终端区空中交通流特性分析

摘要

This paper studies the time-space characteristics of air traffic flow in airport terminal area, which aims at revealing the inner influence and congestion mechanism of air traffic flow and providing scientific basis for air traffic control strategies. First, the timing distribution of air traffic flow parameters for target air routes is established based on original radar data. Then, according to the fundamental diagrams and air traffic operations as well as control rules, the air traffic states are divided into three phases: free flow, weak intervention and strong intervention. Finally, on the basis of state division, the air traffic velocity-density model, flux-density model and flux-velocity model are proposed by linear regression analysis, and the significance of model fitting and parameters is tested by F and T test. The results demonstrate that the models are corresponding to air traffic flow characteristics and fitting for traffic states identification.%研究机场终端区空中交通流时空特性，为揭示交通流内在相互影响及拥堵机理，优化终端区管控策略提供科学依据。本文根据实测的空管雷达信息，首先确定目标航段上空中交通流参数的时序分布；然后从交通流参数关系基本图出发，结合终端区空中交通运行方式与管制规则的分析，将空中交通流状态划分为自由流、弱管制干预流和强管制干预流三个阶段；最后，在状态划分的基础上，采用线性回归分析建立空中交通流的速度—密度模型、流率—密度模型和流率—速度模型，并以F和T检验对回归模型及回归系数的显著性进行检验。研究结果表明，本文建立的交通流模型能够较好地反映空中交通流特性，且对终端区空中交通时空态势的评估具有应用价值。