基于风险的船体结构无损检测功能的分级

摘要

基于船舶结构传统的经验基础上的检测方法不但带来较高的费用,而且还会产生不必要的检测.针对上述问题,本文提出了基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法,采用检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率度量检测功能,并修正了错误识别概率的取值范围.根据风险值对无损检测功能进行了分级,研究了风险值随检测概率、错误识别概率和裂纹出现概率的变化规律,并分析了风险值对检测费用、维修费用及失效费用的敏感性.在此基础上,将基于风险的船舶结构无损检测功能分级方法应用于优化检测策略,并用算例证明了文中所提方法的有效性.%The traditional experience-based inspection approach incurs higher costs or yields unnecessary inspections for ship structures. To overcome these disadvantages,a risk-based ranking method is proposed to rank nondestructive inspection performances for ship structures. The three variables of the probability of detection,the false call probability and the probability of presence of a crack are adopted for completely characterizing nondestructive inspection performances. The range of variation for the false call probability is corrected.The values of risk are used to rank nondestructive inspection performances. A numerical example is illustrated to obtain the variation laws of the values of risk with the probability of detection,the false call probability and the probability of presence of a crack. Furthermore, the influences of different costs on the value of risk are discussed. The proposed method is then applied to select the optimal inspection strategy.The results indicate that the proposed method is very effective in selecting the optimal inspection strategy.