2012年西北太平洋多台站台风预报误差比较分析

摘要

In order to scientifically determine the typhoon parameters when forecasting the storm surge and waves during tropical typhoon events, the overall wind forecasting errors of 25 tropical typhoon events that occurred over the northwest Pacific region in 2012 were analyzed and compared, based on typhoon forecasting data from the National Meteorological Center ( NMC) of China, the Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA) , the National Weather Service ( NWS) of the United States, the Hong Kong Observatory ( HKO) of China, and the Taiwan Meteorological Center ( TMC) of China. Meanwhile, the forecasting errors of two twin typhoon events in 2012 were evaluated. The results show that the HKO had the highest precision in forecasting the typhoon track: the average errors for 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour typhoon track forecasts were 85. 8 km, 129. 8 km, and 209. 0 km, respectively;and the NMC had the best performance in forecasting the maximum speed of the typhoon with the smallest mean absolute errors: the mean absolute errors of 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour maximum speed forecasts were 4. 5 m/s, 6. 0 m/s, and 6. 6 m/s, respectively. The results also show that the level of forecasting errors varied at different stations in terms of the forecast of the moving process and intensity variation of twin typhoons.%为了科学地确定台风浪和风暴潮预报时采用的台风参数,利用中央气象台、日本气象厅、美国国家天气局、香港天文台和中国台湾气象局发布的预报资料,对各台站发布的2012年发生在西北太平洋上25个热带气旋的预报成果总体误差进行了分析和比较,并就2012年出现的两次双台风的预报误差进行了个例分析。结果表明：就整体而言,台风路径预报中,香港天文台的24 h,48 h和72 h预报次数最少但精度最高,分别为85.8 km,129.8 km,209.0 km；台风强度(最大风速)预报中,中央气象台在不同预报时效的平均绝对误差最小(4.5 m/s,6.0 m/s,6.6 m/s)且预报最稳定。而对于双台风的移动过程和强度变化,各台站的预报精度水平不一。