An Analysis of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecast Errors.

摘要

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone position forecast errors for 10 years (1966-1975) are statistically analyzed. Variations of errors versus a number of parameters are examined. Discriminant analysis techniques are used to isolate categories where forecasts are likely to be above and below the median in west-east and north-south error components. The discriminant analysis was tested on 1976 data and the results are presented. It was confirmed that a small number of readily available parameters (such as location, maximum wind and components of motion) can, with reasonable effectiveness, classify a tropical cyclone forecast as representing a group with either markedly above or below average errors. The annual variations of forecast errors are also discussed and an attempt is made to explain those variations. (Author)