It came up with the driver behavior predictive model and obtained the model parameter estima-tion in this paper .Comparative analysis showed that the attitudes of driving have greater impact on viola-tions,dangerous errors and psychological precursors ,the psychological precursors also acts on violations which were not considered in the predictive model .It analyzed the fit index of the model ,and concluded that the model fitted good in this paper .In the future ,the students′safety awareness should be focused in driver training ,the content and form of the training also need to improve .%提出了驾驶行为的预测模型，并对所构建的模型进行参数估计。通过比较分析可知驾驶态度对违规、危险性错误及心理前提条件影响较大。另外，心理前提条件对违规的影响也较大，这是预测模型所没有考虑到的。对模型的拟合指数进行分析，通过分析可知模型拟合情况良好。在今后的驾驶培训过程中，要注重学员安全意识的培养，还需在教学内容和教育形式上有所改进。
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