Predictive Battlespace Awareness and Effects Based Operations from a Homeland Security Perspective: A War-Gaming Opportunity

摘要

Effects Based Operations (EBO) and Predictive Battlespace Awareness (PBA) are intimately linked. Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace (IPB), the predictive component of PBA, provides a structured analytical process for defining the battlespace environment, describing the battlespace effects that influence all sides, modeling the adversary, and determining likely enemy courses of action (COA). IPB documents some of the necessary elements of EBO, such as centers of gravity, counter-COAs, and indicators. The IPB process has been adapted to Information Operations (IO) through Intelligence Preparation of the Information Battlespace (IPIB), a prototype system for cyber-defense. IPIB ranks Enemy cyber-COAs and lists mission-critical network assets that must be defended. It is clear that IPIB can be inverted for developing COAs that implement EBO, and the prototype is being modified for offensive IO. Full-spectrum EBO would combine kinetic, cyber, and cognitive COAs to affect an adversary's behavior. This paper uses a Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) scenario to: 1) Provide an example of EBO-based PBA for CIP. 2) Illustrate the interaction between EBO and PBA. 3) Demonstrate the need for a national Critical Infrastructure vulnerability assessment. 4) Identify why simulation and wargaming are the most viable means of performing such an assessment.