热带气象

摘要： 应世界气象组织(WMO)邀请,中国气象科学研究院端义宏和梁旭东研究员参加了由世界气象组织世界天气研究计划(WWRP)热带气象工作组于2018年9月10-13日在新西兰奥克兰举办的第11次热带气象工作组会议及热带气旋全预警系统概念(Total Warning System Concept)科学讨论会。

摘要： 2017年9月20-23日，WMO天气研究计划热带气象工作组（WGT-MR／WWRP／WMO）第11次会议在中国香港召开。

摘要： 1概况2018年4月16—20日，美国气象学会（AMS）第33届飓风与热带气象国际研讨会在佛罗里达Ponte Vedra举行。此次盛会吸引了来自全球近700名科学家、一线业务专家和研究生参加，会议口头报告约480个、墙报290个。

摘要： The quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) in very-short range(0-12 hours) has been investigated in this paper by using a convective-scale(3km) GRAPES_Meso model. At first, a latent heat nudging(LHN) scheme to assimilate the hourly intensified surface precipitation data was set up to enhance the initialization of GRAPES_Meso integration. And then based on the LHN scheme, a convective-scale prediction system was built up in considering the initial "triggering"uncertainties by means of multi-scale initial analysis(MSIA), such as the three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR), the traditional LHN method(VAR0LHN3), the cycling LHN method(CYCLING), the spatial filtering(SS) and the temporal filtering(DFI) LHN methods. Furthermore, the probability matching(PM) method was used to generate the QPF in very-short range by combining the precipitation forecasts of the five runs. The experiments for one month were carried out to validate the MSIA and PM method for QPF in very-short range.The numerical simulation results showed that:(1) in comparison with the control run, the CYCLING run could generate the smaller-scale initial moist increments and was better for reducing the spin-up time and triggering the convection in a very-short time;(2) the DFI runs could generate the initial analysis fields with relatively larger-scale initial increments and trigger the weaker convections at the beginning time(0-3h) of integration, but enhance them at latter time(6-12h);(3) by combining the five runs with different convection triggering features, the PM method could significantly improve the QPF in very-short range in comparison to any single run. Therefore, the QPF with a small size of combining members proposed here is quite prospective in operation for its lower computation cost and better performance.

摘要： By using barotropic model equations, this article analyzed the characteristics of Rossby waves, the propagation features of wave energy and the influence of dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Rossby waves,and the focus is on discussing the plateau's topographic gradient effects on atmospheric Rossby waves. Then based on the WRF3.2 and the NCEP/NCAR FNL reanalysis data, we devised comparative tests of changing the plateau's topographic gradient and simulated a process of persistent heavy rain that happened in May 2010 in South China. The results are shown as follows. The Tibetan Plateau's topography is conducive to the formation of atmospheric Rossby waves. while the plateau's terrain, its friction and heating effects can all make the atmospheric Rossby waves develop into the planetary waves; The effects of plateau's north and south slopes on the Rossby wave' phase velocity is opposite,and when the slope reached a certain value can the quasi-steady normal fluctuations be generated; Simultaneously, due to the plateau's topographic gradient, descending motion appears at the west side of the plateau while ascending motion appears at the east side, and the vertical movement increased with the amplification of topographic gradients. The plateau's topographic gradient also obviously amplified the precipitation in South China, and the rainfall area increased with the amplification of topographic gradients and gradually moved from south to north and from west to east, which is conducive to the occurrence and development of convective activities in the downstream areas of the Tibetan Plateau;Moreover, for the plateau's dynamic and thermal effects, the Rossby wave' propagation shows upstream effects of energy dispersion, so the plateau can then affect the weather in downstream areas. Moreover, the wave group velocity increased with the degree of topographic slope.

摘要： A hybrid GSI(Grid-point Statistical Interpolation)-ETKF(Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) data assimilation system has been recently developed for the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and tested with simulated observations for tropical cyclone(TC) forecast. This system is based on the existing GSI but with ensemble background information incorporated. As a follow-up, this work extends the new system to assimilate real observations to further understand the hybrid scheme. As a first effort to explore the system with real observations, relatively coarse grid resolution(27 km) is used. A case study of typhoon Muifa(2011) is performed to assimilate real observations including conventional in-situ and satellite data. The hybrid system with flow-dependent ensemble covariance shows significant improvements with respect to track forecast compared to the standard GSI system which in theory is three dimensional variational analysis(3DVAR). By comparing the analyses, analysis increments and forecasts, the hybrid system is found to be potentially able to recognize the existence of TC vortex, adjust its position systematically, better describe the asymmetric structure of typhoon Muifa and maintain the dynamic and thermodynamic balance in typhoon initial field. In addition, a cold-start hybrid approach by using the global ensembles to provide flow-dependent error is tested and similar results are revealed with those from cycled GSI-ETKF approach.

摘要： The variation of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide(CO_2) concentration plays an important role in global climate and agriculture.We analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of CO_2 in the China region and around the globe with the CO_2 column mixing ratios observed by the Japanese GOSAT satellite(Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite).In order to make sure that the accuracy of the CO_2 data retrieved by the satellite meets the needs of the climate characteristics analyses,we ran a validation on the CO_2 column mixing ratios retrieved by the satellite against the ground-based TCCON(Total Carbon Column Observing Network) observation data.The result shows that the two sets of data have a correlation coefficient of higher than 0.7,and a bias of within 2.2 ppmv.Therefore,the GOSAT CO_2 data can be used for the climate characteristics analysis of global CO_2.Our analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of the CO_2 column mixing ratios observed during the period of June 2009 through January 2014 proved that,with the impact of the natural emission of near ground CO_2 and human activities,the global CO_2 concentration has a significant latitudinal characteristics with its highest level averaging 390 ppmv in the 0-40?N latitudinal zone in the Northern Hemisphere,and 387 ppmv in the Southern Hemisphere.China has a relatively higher CO_2 concentration with the highest level exceeding 398 ppmv,and the eastern area higher than the western area.The variation of global CO_2 concentration shows a seasonal pattern,i.e.the CO_2 concentration reaches its highest in spring in the Northern Hemisphere averaging more than 392 ppmv,second highest in winter,and lowest in summer averaging less than 387 ppmv.It fluctuates the most in the Northern Hemisphere with an average concentration of 392.5 ppmv in April,and 385.5 ppmv in July.While in the Southern Hemisphere,the seasonal fluctuation is smaller with the highest concentration occurring in July.Over the recent years,the global CO_2 concentration has shown an elevating trend with an average annual increase rate of 1.58 ppmv per year.It is a challenge that the human kind has to face to slow down the increase of the CO_2 concentration.

摘要： This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR(Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between mass and wind at one level, the multi-level scheme considers the coupling between their vertical profiles and calculates the balanced mass field at each layer using the rotational wind at all model levels. A reformed ridge regression method is used in the new scheme to avoid the multicollinearity problem and reduce the noises caused by unbalanced mesoscale disturbances. The results of numerical experiments show that the new scheme can get more reasonable vertical mass field, reduce the magnitude of the adjustment by the initialization, and improve the potential temperature analysis performance. Furthermore, the results of forecast verification in January(winter) and July(summer) both confirm that the new scheme can significantly improve the temperature forecast accuracy andbring slight positive effects to the pressure and wind forecast.

摘要： NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called ) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

摘要： 本文介绍了国际热带气象研究计划组成部分:热带气旋、季风、热带干旱和造雨系统、热带有限区数值模拟、热带和中纬度天气系统相互作用以及热带气象和气候的研究现况,并对其发展作了分析.

摘要： 本发明是一种基于时变气象数据的热带气旋动态仿真方法，属于计算机图像学相关技术。主要包括基于气象数据的热带气旋建模方法，多次前向散射的云绘制算法方法，和基于位置的流体的热带气旋仿真算法方法三部分。首先对热带气旋的时变气象数据进行分析，抽取速度场数据备流体仿真使用，提取云强度相关数据，同时建立云的粒子模型，建模成适合计算机图形学绘制的图元数据；再次是实现对图元数据的逼真展现；最后，依据建立的图形模型，使用基于位置的流体仿真算法，实现对气象数据中热带气旋的仿真展示。

摘要： 本发明公开了一种利用静止气象卫星图像估计西北太平洋热带气旋强度的方法，其特征在于包含如下步骤：在等经纬度卫星云图提取台风内核区红外窗区亮温和水汽通道亮温信息；再利用这些亮温信息获取WIRA指数值；对获取的所有WIRA指数值进行求平均值运算，获取平均值μ，统计台风内核区WIRA指数处于[μ，μ+5]范围内相对应的总像素点数W；利用方程台风强度方程I＝985.474‑0.033·W‑2.391×10

摘要： 本发明涉及使用丰年虾的热带鱼饲料制造方法及由此制造的热带鱼饲料，更详细地，涉及一种使孵化的丰年虾摄取螺旋藻和红球藻来制造为热带鱼饲料，从而可促进热带鱼的生长并增强免疫力、提高热带鱼的摄取、消化、吸收及适口性的使用丰年虾的热带鱼饲料制造方法及由此制造的热带鱼饲料。

摘要： 本发明是一种基于时变气象数据的热带气旋动态仿真方法，属于计算机图像学相关技术。主要包括基于气象数据的热带气旋建模方法，多次前向散射的云绘制算法方法，和基于位置的流体的热带气旋仿真算法方法三部分。首先对热带气旋的时变气象数据进行分析，抽取速度场数据备流体仿真使用，提取云强度相关数据，同时建立云的粒子模型，建模成适合计算机图形学绘制的图元数据；再次是实现对图元数据的逼真展现；最后，依据建立的图形模型，使用基于位置的流体仿真算法，实现对气象数据中热带气旋的仿真展示。

摘要： 本发明公开了一种利用静止气象卫星图像估计西北太平洋热带气旋强度的方法，其特征在于包含如下步骤：在等经纬度卫星云图提取台风内核区红外窗区亮温和水汽通道亮温信息；再利用这些亮温信息获取WIRA指数值；对获取的所有WIRA指数值进行求平均值运算，获取平均值μ，统计台风内核区WIRA指数处于[μ，μ+5]范围内相对应的总像素点数W；利用方程台风强度方程I＝985.474-0.033·W-2.391×10

摘要： 本发明提供一种热带、亚热带滨海沙地快速绿化的方法，将草海桐和白背蔓荆的种子分别采用处理液A和处理液B进行处理，处理液A包括以下重量份原料：3～5‰盐度的海水35～40份、硫酸锌8～11份和EM菌种2～3份，处理液B包括以下重量份原料：质量浓度180～220mg/L的赤霉素20～30份、质量浓度85～90％的浓硫酸15～18份、多粘类芽孢杆菌发酵物12～15份和磷酸铵8～12份。本发明采用科学配比的处理液，并结合特定的混合种植方式和幼苗的处理方式，不仅缩短草海桐和白背蔓荆种子的萌发时间，还可提高种子的发芽率，并增大草海桐叶面积和增加白背蔓荆果实的黄素和总黄酮含量，使滨海沙地快速地实现景观美化和沙地绿化的效果。

摘要： 本发明公开了一种热带亚热带水果北方保护地栽培方法，属于水果栽培技术领域，该栽培方法包括苗木选择，苗木驯化，苗木定植；所述苗木驯化包括南方育苗地驯化和北方移栽地驯化；本发明的栽培方法能够提高热带亚热带果树移栽北方的成活率，并可实现当年移栽当年结果，第二年丰产，还能够提高平均每株结果重量。

摘要： 本发明涉及使用丰年虾的热带鱼饲料制造方法及由此制造的热带鱼饲料，更详细地，涉及一种使孵化的丰年虾摄取螺旋藻和红球藻来制造为热带鱼饲料，从而可促进热带鱼的生长并增强免疫力、提高热带鱼的摄取、消化、吸收及适口性的使用丰年虾的热带鱼饲料制造方法及由此制造的热带鱼饲料。

摘要： 本发明涉及自调控电伴热带检测设备，公开了一种自调控电伴热带检测装置，包括主体，所述主体的上端设置有温度探测元件，所述主体的下端设置有电流检测元件，所述主体的内部设置有能够接收并处理所述温度探测元件和所述电流检测元件所测量到的信息的内部处理器，所述主体的外表面上设置有用于手动输入数据的手动输入模块和显示数据及分析结果的外部显示器。本发明能够准确的对自调控电伴热带的各项数值进行测量后计算，对自调控电伴热带的寿命进行判断。此外，还涉及一种使用该自调控电伴热带检测装置对自调控电伴热带进行检测的方法。

摘要： 本实用新型公开了一种用于固定加热带的扣碗和便于快速安装的加热带，所述扣碗为轴向两端贯通的环形柱体，且所述扣碗的轴向两端开口的内径不等；所述环形柱体上开口内径较大的一端设有与扣碗的中心轴倾斜的延伸部，所述延伸部上设有卡孔。本实用新型通过将加热带封头设计成阶梯轴结构，在加热带封头上套设轴向两端开口内径不等的扣碗，并将拉簧钩在扣碗的卡孔内，使加热带能够方便的缠绕固定在发动机外周，由于扣碗与加热带相互独立，因此加热带的加工工艺得到简化，卡扣部位损坏后只需要更换扣碗即可，降低了维修更换成本。