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Austerity, cyclical adjustment and the remaining leeway for expansionary fiscal policies within the current EU fiscal framework

机译:紧缩,周期性调整以及当前欧盟财政框架内扩张性财政政策的剩余余地

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摘要

Fiscal policy in the Euro area is still dominated by austerity measures implemented under the institutional setting of the 'reformed' stability and growth pact, and the even stricter 'fiscal compact'. At the same time, calls for a more expansionary fiscal policy to overcome the economic crisis have recently become more frequent. In his Jackson Hole speech Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, called for a more expansionary fiscal stance for the Euro area as a whole and a public investment programme on the European level insisting, however, that the existing rules of the Stability and Growth Pact be respected. The European Council at its meeting in June 2014 also saw the need to stimulate growth, but insisted as well that this be realised within the current institutional framework. Recently, the EU-Commission in this spirit has launched the Juncker-Plan to stimulate (public) investment and is using a less strict interpretation of the Stability and Growth Pact in order to provide more fiscal leeway for countries under unfavourable economic circumstances. The paper argues that these steps do not go far enough and that a truly expansionary fiscal policy in the dimension of two to three per cent of Euro area GDP for a few years is possible even within the existing institutional framework. Special emphasis is put on the method of cyclical adjustment employed by the European Commission in order to assess member states' fiscal position and effort as well as on ways to increase public investment. It will be shown that even in the existing framework the leeway for a macro economically and socially more sensible fiscal policy using the interpretational leeway inherent in the rules could be quite substantial.
机译:欧元区的财政政策仍然以紧缩措施为主导,这种紧缩措施是在“改革”的稳定与增长协定以及更严格的“财政契约”的体制背景下实施的。同时,要求采取更具扩张性的财政政策以克服经济危机的呼声最近变得越来越频繁。欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在杰克逊·霍尔(Jackson Hole)的讲话中,呼吁对整个欧元区采取更具扩张性的财政立场,而欧洲一级的公共投资计划则坚持认为,现有的稳定与增长规则条约得到尊重。欧洲理事会在2014年6月的会议上也认为有必要刺激增长,但也坚持认为必须在当前体制框架内实现增长。最近,本着这种精神的欧盟委员会启动了容克计划以刺激(公共)投资,并使用了对“稳定与增长公约”的不严格解释,以便为处于不利经济环境下的国家提供更多的财政余地。该论文认为,这些步骤还远远不够,而且即使在现有的体制框架内,几年内也可能有一个真正的扩张性财政政策,其规模占欧元区GDP的2%至3%。为了评估成员国的财政状况和努力以及增加公共投资的方式,特别强调了欧洲委员会采用的周期性调整方法。结果表明,即使在现有框架中,使用规则中固有的解释性余地来制定宏观的经济和社会明智的财政政策的余地也可能是相当可观的。

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    Truger Achim;

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