Optimal measures in order to reduce total emissions from non-road mobile machinery in a national and economic perspective

摘要

In this report future annual emissions amounts of gaseous pollutants, particulate matter (PM10) and noise from the non-road mobile machinery sector in Sweden were estimated. The estimates over future emissions amounts were conducted for each year from 2006 to 2020. Special focus has been taken to the impact of European and national legislations, the age distribution of different types and sizes of machinery and measures to reduce the annual emissions. Besides different measures to reduce emissions, corresponding costs were also estimated. The study comprises fuel consumption and emissions of CO2, carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and noise from non-road mobile machinery equipped with diesel engines with a rated engine power of 37 to 560 kW. Non-road mobile machinery for example includes tractors, wheel loaders, excavators, articulate haulers, mobile cranes, combined harvesters, forestry machinery and trucks. The current report was a supplementary study to a report describing a methodology for estimating annual fuel consumption and emissions from the non-road mobile machinery sector in Sweden for year 2006. Inventory data of the year 2006 study was obtained from the Swedish machinery testing institute’s machinery inspection operation, statistics of sale returns from trade organisations and the Swedish motor-vehicle register. The number of machinery and annual fuel consumption and emissions amounts for year 2006 is presented in table S1. Besides estimates of annual fuel consumption and emissions amounts, emissions of noise was also derived both at a national level and for a specific construction site. For the case study the results showed that it was possible to reduce the average noise level with more than 3 dB(A) compared with the base scenario just by choosing the machinery fulfilling the strictest noise limits, i.e. Stage II which was mandatory for most machinery from 2006. Other measures simulated included various types of retrofit of noise reduction packages. The specific cost for the different measures to reduce average noise emissions from the specific construction site varied from 4 000 up to more than 500 000 SEK dB-1. For the estimate of future fuel consumption and emissions amounts various simulations were conducted, each with a different measure for reducing the annual amounts. Five main emission reduction measures or programs were studied: - Scrappage program - Alternative fuel program - Voluntary emission regulation program - Retrofit of aftertreatment program - Noise reduction program The impact on engine exhaust gas emissions and noise of the current European emission and noise regulations, Stage I to IV and Stage I to II for emissions and noise respectively were common for all simulations or programs. Besides the impact of European regulations, annual work was set to a fixed value for each type of machinery and year simulated, thus eliminating any potential changes of the state of the market. The result of the baseline scenario "Business as usual" (BAU), i.e. only taking account to the impact of European regulation, is presented in table S2 for four different years Both fuel consumption and emissions of CO2 remains fairly constant as an effect of the assumption that the annual work was set at a fixed value. However, emissions of especially NOx and PM showed a major reduction due to the tighter and tighter regulations. All programs simulated were able to reduce the emissions compared with the BAU scenario with exceptions for emissions of nitrogen oxides, which increased in some of the alternative fuel programs. Both the absolute reduction and cost varied significantly between and within the various programs. Reduction of NOx varied from an accumulated increase in emissions of 25 000 tonne to an accumulated reduction of 22 000 tonne for the studied period from 2006 to 2020. At the same time the accumulated cost for the programs varied from a few hundred million SEK to more than 60 000 million SEK. In table S3, specific reduction cost for each pollutant in SEK kg-1 for eight typical emission reduction programs are presented. The results showed that the most economically favourable alternative for reducing emissions from non-road mobile machinery was the voluntary emissions regulation program, i.e. early introduction of machinery fulfilling coming emission limits. Another important result was that the introduction of alternative fuels as a mean of emissions reduction was associated with rather high costs compared to the actual reduction in emissions. For emissions of nitrogen oxides the specific reduction cost varied from almost 100 SEK kg-1 up to a few hundreds of SEK kg-1 except for the alternative fuel programs, which resulted in a considerable higher cost.