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Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods

机译:开发风阵模型以估计阵风速度及其返回期

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摘要

Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications.
机译:阵风速度的空间密集观测对于各种应用都是必需的,但是其可用性在空间和时间上受到限制。这项工作提出了一种方法来帮助克服此问题。主要目标是合成风阵风速度的产生。为此,根据德国气象局提供的123个天气观测站每小时收集的10年每小时观测值,估算理论风和阵风分布。作为预处理,对平均风速的测量值进行曝光校正,以减少局部城市和地形效应的影响。阵风模型是作为阵风和阵风速度分布参数之间的传递函数而建立的。该程序的目的是估计仅风速数据可用的站的阵风参数。这些参数可用于生成合成阵风,在缺乏观测的情况下可以提高测试地点返回时间的准确性。第二个目标是通过考虑极值统计来确定比原始时间序列的标称长度长得多的返回周期。提供了单个历史事件的本地最大回报期和平均回报期的估计。最大和平均返回时间的比较显示,即使平均返回时间短的风暴也可能导致几十年的返回时间的局部阵风。尽管由于观测记录长度短而导致不确定性,但该方法仍可得到一致的结果,从而可以广泛地应用。

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