The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land useand the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using ametamodel system

摘要

This paper describes a procedure to use a model interactively to investigatefuture land use by studying a wide range of scenarios defining climate,technological and socio-economic changes. A full model run of several hours hasbeen replaced by a metamodel version which takes a few seconds, and provides theuser with an immediate visual output and with the ability to examine easilywhich factors have the greatest effect. The Regional Impact Simulator combines amodel of agricultural land use choices linked with models of urban growth,flooding risk, water quality and consequences for wildlife to estimate plausiblefutures of agricultural land on a timescale of 20–50 years. The model examinesthe East Anglian and North West regions of the United Kingdom at a gridresolution of 5 × 5 km, and for each scenario estimates the most likely croppingand its profitability at each location, and classifies land use as arable,intensive or extensive grassland or abandoned. From a modelling viewpoint themetamodel approach enables iteration. It is thus possible to determine howproduct prices change so that production meets demand. The results of the studyshow that in East Anglia cropping remains quite stable over a wide range ofscenarios, though grassland is eliminated in scenarios with the 2050s Highclimate scenario – almost certainly due to the low yield in the drierconditions. In the North West there is a very much greater range of outcomes,though all scenarios suggest a reduction in grassland with the greatest in the2050s High climate scenario combined with the “Regional Stewardship”(environmental) socio-economic scenario. The effects of the predicted changes inland use on plant species showed suitability for species to vary greatly,particularly between the socio-economic scenarios, due to detrimental effectsfrom increases in nitrogen fertilisation. A complete simulation with theRegional Impact Simulator takes around 15 seconds (computer-dependent), whichusers who responded felt was adequate or better than adequate. The main areasfor future improvement, such as the speed of the system, user interaction andthe accuracy and detail of the modelling, are co