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The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land useand the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using ametamodel system

机译:未来的社会经济和气候变化对农业土地利用的影响以及东英格兰和英格兰西北的更广泛环境元模型系统

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摘要

This paper describes a procedure to use a model interactively to investigatefuture land use by studying a wide range of scenarios defining climate,technological and socio-economic changes. A full model run of several hours hasbeen replaced by a metamodel version which takes a few seconds, and provides theuser with an immediate visual output and with the ability to examine easilywhich factors have the greatest effect. The Regional Impact Simulator combines amodel of agricultural land use choices linked with models of urban growth,flooding risk, water quality and consequences for wildlife to estimate plausiblefutures of agricultural land on a timescale of 20–50 years. The model examinesthe East Anglian and North West regions of the United Kingdom at a gridresolution of 5 × 5 km, and for each scenario estimates the most likely croppingand its profitability at each location, and classifies land use as arable,intensive or extensive grassland or abandoned. From a modelling viewpoint themetamodel approach enables iteration. It is thus possible to determine howproduct prices change so that production meets demand. The results of the studyshow that in East Anglia cropping remains quite stable over a wide range ofscenarios, though grassland is eliminated in scenarios with the 2050s Highclimate scenario – almost certainly due to the low yield in the drierconditions. In the North West there is a very much greater range of outcomes,though all scenarios suggest a reduction in grassland with the greatest in the2050s High climate scenario combined with the “Regional Stewardship”(environmental) socio-economic scenario. The effects of the predicted changes inland use on plant species showed suitability for species to vary greatly,particularly between the socio-economic scenarios, due to detrimental effectsfrom increases in nitrogen fertilisation. A complete simulation with theRegional Impact Simulator takes around 15 seconds (computer-dependent), whichusers who responded felt was adequate or better than adequate. The main areasfor future improvement, such as the speed of the system, user interaction andthe accuracy and detail of the modelling, are co
机译:本文通过研究定义气候,技术和社会经济变化的各种情景,描述了一种交互使用模型来研究未来土地利用的程序。数小时的完整模型运行已由需要花费几秒钟的元模型版本取代,该模型需要几秒钟的时间,并为用户提供即时的视觉输出,并能够轻松检查哪些因素影响最大。区域影响模拟器结合了农业用地选择模型和城市增长模型,洪水风险,水质以及对野生动植物的影响模型,以估算20-50年时间范围内农业用地的合理未来。该模型以5×5 km的网格分辨率检查了英国的东安吉利安和西北地区,并针对每种情况估计了每个位置最有可能种植的作物及其获利能力,并将土地利用分为可耕种,集约化或粗放草地或荒地。从建模的角度来看,主题模型方法可实现迭代。因此,有可能确定产品价格如何变化,以使生产满足需求。研究结果表明,尽管在2050年代高气候情景下草原被淘汰,但东英吉利亚的作物在各种情景下仍保持稳定,这几乎可以肯定是由于干旱条件下单产较低。在西北地区,结果的范围要大得多,尽管所有情况都表明,在2050年代高气候情景下结合“区域管理”(环境)社会经济情景,减少的草地面积最大。预测的内陆用途变化对植物物种的影响表明,由于氮肥用量增加的不利影响,物种的适应性变化很大,尤其是在社会经济情景之间。使用Region Impact Simulator进行的完整模拟大约需要15秒(取决于计算机),做出响应的用户认为这是适当的或优于适当的。未来的主要改进领域包括系统的速度,用户交互以及建模的准确性和细节。

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