Hydrology and water resources management in East Anglia and North West England in the context of climate and socio-economic change

摘要

Future water resource management is of primary importance to society, economy and theenvironment. Planning for climate change and adapting to those changes, which requires anunderstanding of the complex consequences of climate change for the hydrology and humanand environmental uses of water, is important for a sustainable future. This research studyholistically explored possible implications of global climate change and regional socioeconomicchange on water resource management in the contrasting regions of East Anglia andNorth West England. A model was developed to estimate the impacts on the catchmenthydrology and on the robustness of the regional water resources system as a consequence offuture changes. For a range of plausible futures, the hydrological responses are mainlyaffected by changes in climate, whereas the impacts on water resources are primarilydetermined by socio-economic factors that can exacerbate or ameliorate the impacts ofclimate. Under economically-focused futures, water demand increases at the expense of theenvironment’s allocation of water, and the water quality is deteriorated, which compromisescurrent environmental legislative requirements. Under environmentally-focused futures theenvironment is protected but at the expense of society and the economy. East Anglia isgenerally more vulnerable than North West England because water supply is scarcer, riverflows are lower and it has a much larger arable agricultural area; e.g. under most futures thereis a deficit between the water supply and demand. Anticipatory adaptation options within thecontext of the storylines of each socio-economic scenario were generally successful inmanaging water demand and supply and avoiding conflicts between the water users. Thisstudy illustrates the importance of regional integrated assessments which allow for futuresocio-economic changes in evaluating the impacts of climate change on the hydrology, waterenvironment and water resources.