Russian Federation: Determinants of Corn Import Demand

摘要

The report provides an overview of the Russian domestic corn sector and thefactors that affect corn import demand. Low domestic corn production and increasing demand for feed grains, the result of State policy to increase per capita consumption by expanding inventories, led to high levels of corn imports during the 1970's and 1980's. These imports were financed with hard currency export earnings and, later, through export assistance. Since the breakup of the USSR, most Russian corn imports continue to be centralized through the Government and distributed by the State company Roskhleboprodukt. Primary suppliers of corn to Russia (and the former Soviet Union) have included the United States, Argentina, China, Canada, Thailand, and Eastern Europe. However, since 1988, the United States has held 70-90 percent of the FSU corn import market share, largely due to available export supplies and, more recently, financial assistance. The most important determinants of import source are export financing and price. Quality characteristics could become more important when processors and livestock producers begin to make import deicisons. Over the long run, Russian corn import demand could decline, given a smaller livestock sector and domestically produced feed substitutes.